Africa Economics Update Hawkish majority to rule the SARB for some time Today’s decision in South Africa to raise the benchmark rate by 75bp, to 6.25%, despite weakness in the economy suggests that policymakers are prioritising tackling inflation above all else. We think... 22nd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.) The fall in inflation in South Africa, to 7.6% y/y in August, marked the first sign that price pressures are turning a corner. But we doubt this will be enough to convince the Reserve Bank to scale... 21st September 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria oil output, Kenya subsidies, Zambia debt The fall in Nigeria’s oil production in August to a 50-year low, coming alongside the recent drop back in oil prices, reinforces our downbeat view on the economy’s prospects. Elsewhere, Kenya’s... 16th September 2022 · 9 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Jul.) July’s hard activity data out of South Africa suggest that the economy started the third quarter on a weak footing. With little momentum, GDP growth is likely to be subdued over the coming quarters... 14th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Zambia’s return to debt sustainability still elusive One year into Hakainde Hichilema’s presidency, Zambia has taken key steps on the path out of a sovereign default, including securing an IMF deal this month. But with debt restructuring talks yet to... 13th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia debt, SA data and stimulus, election challenges Analysis from the IMF this week suggests that, even with debt relief in the pipeline, putting Zambia’s public debt on a sustainable footing will be a tall order. Meanwhile, data this week have raised... 9th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) South Africa’s economy contracted by 0.7% q/q in Q2 and this is likely to be followed by only modest growth in the coming quarters. The outturn might raise second thoughts at the Reserve Bank about... 6th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia’s IMF deal sealed, reading tea leaves from SA data This week’s rubber-stamping of Zambia’s IMF deal is certainly a welcome step but, with crucial sovereign debt restructuring details unknown, it remains unclear if it will prove to be sufficient to... 2nd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola’s elections, SA price pressures, Ethiopia’s debt President João Lourenço is on course to secure another term following this week’s elections in Angola. With the political backdrop little changed, we think that the economy will revert to its low... 26th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q2) GDP growth in Nigeria picked up to 3.5% y/y in Q2 as woes in the oil sector eased and the non-oil economy held up well. We expect the drag from the oil sector to diminish further in the coming... 26th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Angola: elections won’t prevent return to slow growth Angola’s elections on Wednesday may be more competitive than ever before, but the ruling party’s decades-long hold on power is unlikely to come to an end. Assuming President Lourenço secures another... 23rd August 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya’s elections, Bank of Ghana in panic mode Deputy President William Ruto was this week declared winner in Kenya’s presidential election, but the result is being challenged and the threat of violence lingers. Even if that is avoided, Mr. Ruto... 19th August 2022 · 9 mins read
