Africa Economics Weekly What to expect from South Africa’s MTBPS? South Africa’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement, scheduled for Wednesday, is unlikely to provide the drama that the UK’s “mini-Budget” did, but we suspect that the government will tilt fiscal... 21st October 2022 · 6 mins read
Event South Africa Drop-In: Unpacking the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement 1666792800 Our Emerging Markets team gave our clients their immediate reaction to the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on 26th October. The team addressed key issues, including:
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Aug.) August’s hard activity data out of South Africa and more timely indicators point to a small fall in GDP in Q3, marking a technical recession. Even so, we expect the Reserve Bank to stay focused on... 19th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) While South Africa’s headline rate edged down to 7.5% y/y in September, the surprising strength of core inflation will push policymakers to deliver another 75bp hike in the benchmark interest rate, to... 19th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep.) The rise in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate to a 17-year high of 20.8% y/y last month reinforces our view that policymakers will raise the benchmark rate by a further 100bp, to 16.50%, in November... 17th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s public finances, ups and downs of SA industry The shelf life of Nigeria’s recently presented budget plans is likely to be short with elections due in early-2023 and no guarantee about policy continuity. Any new administration will not only have... 14th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB: treading its own path The bi-annual Monetary Policy Review released this week by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) bolsters our view that the tightening cycle, while slow to start, is likely to be one of the most... 7th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The drop back in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in September paints a worrying picture that the sector may have contracted again in Q3. Ongoing electricity supply problems, combined with a worsening... 3rd October 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Politics and fiscal policy moving in tandem Political considerations ahead of key elections in South Africa and Nigeria are likely to add to reasons to loosen fiscal policy over the coming quarters. And while that may support activity in the... 30th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack African central banks stepping up to the plate Just like their peers in advanced economies, monetary policymakers across Sub-Saharan Africa have turned more hawkish recently. Central banks in South Africa and Nigeria hiked interest rates... 29th September 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Impact of the global energy price shock across EMs The surge in energy prices this year (particularly gas) will have the biggest impact on Central and Eastern Europe and push economies there into recession. There will be an impact in the rest of the... 29th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s economic woes, perpetual power cuts in SA Despite the release of better-than-expected Q2 GDP growth figures in Ghana, the economic outlook remains gloomy as policy tightening to address the country’s debt woes will increasingly bite. And in... 23rd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Economic pain mounting in Nigeria The latest data out of Nigeria suggest that economic pain is mounting under the weight of troubles in the key oil sector as well as the country’s unorthodox FX policies. With little reprieve on the... 23rd September 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Hawkish majority to rule the SARB for some time Today’s decision in South Africa to raise the benchmark rate by 75bp, to 6.25%, despite weakness in the economy suggests that policymakers are prioritising tackling inflation above all else. We think... 22nd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.) The fall in inflation in South Africa, to 7.6% y/y in August, marked the first sign that price pressures are turning a corner. But we doubt this will be enough to convince the Reserve Bank to scale... 21st September 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria oil output, Kenya subsidies, Zambia debt The fall in Nigeria’s oil production in August to a 50-year low, coming alongside the recent drop back in oil prices, reinforces our downbeat view on the economy’s prospects. Elsewhere, Kenya’s... 16th September 2022 · 9 mins read
