Africa Economic Outlook Region’s vulnerabilities crystallising The challenging external backdrop means that growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to slow in 2023, and by much more than most expect. Currencies are likely to weaken and public debt fears will... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook 2023 marked by recession and disinflation We continue to expect the world to slip into recession in 2023 as the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates are felt. Our forecasts are below the consensus across the board but... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Leadership changes in South Africa? Ghana’s IMF boost South Africa’s president dodged impeachment earlier this week and is likely to be re-elected as leader of the ruling ANC party over the weekend, but the country’s economic challenges have only grown... 16th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The World in 2023: What to watch for in EMs EMs will experience one of the broadest slowdowns in GDP growth in 2023 since the 1990s. China is one of the few places where growth will accelerate next year, but its move away from zero-COVID will... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Nov.) November inflation data out of Nigeria came in stronger than expected, with the headline rate picking up to 21.5% y/y and price pressures increasing in m/m terms as well. Together with our expectation... 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Oct.) October’s hard activity data out of South Africa showed the economy’s strong performance in Q3 did not last into Q4. Industrial sectors, in particular, faltered. As headwinds mount, we expect a sharp... 14th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Nov.) Inflation in South Africa eased a bit more than expected, to 7.4% y/y, in November and there were encouraging signs that core price pressures are fading. The figures will provide room for the Reserve... 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Conundrum in SA, Nigeria’s cash limits, Ghana’s debt South Africa’s political upheaval took a breather this week but fears about the state electricity company, Eskom, have grown. Problems at Eskom not only pose a threat to economic activity but, if left... 9th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update Making sense of debt developments in Ghana As the authorities in Ghana take further steps towards a debt restructuring, in this Update we take stock of the latest developments and their economic implications. 7th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q3) South Africa’s economy rebounded in Q3, with a 1.6% q/q expansion, but the underlying picture was less rosy as growth was supported by a build-up of inventories; household spending contracted... 6th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Politics and policymaking in SA: stirred or shaken? South Africa’s political turmoil that severely endangered President Cyril Ramaphosa’s position has already shaken the country’s financial markets. In part, this is related to the prospect of the... 2nd December 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry set to slow further The EM manufacturing PMI broadly plateaued in November, but the surveys remained weak in parts of Central Europe and recorded sharp declines in Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam. On the bright side, price... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI increased in November, to 52.6, but underlying activity in the sector is likely to remain subdued as the combination of sustained power cuts and fiscal and monetary... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Tightening cycles have a bit further to run Most central banks across Sub-Saharan Africa raised interest rates over the past month and, in contrast to many other parts of the emerging world, we think tightening cycles will last a while longer... 29th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s fiscal mess, data & decisions wrap Official statements by the authorities in Ghana signalled commitment to restoring fiscal and debt sustainability, and left little doubt that this will include a sovereign debt restructuring. Meanwhile... 25th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB to keep taming “inflation monster” for a while Today’s decision in South Africa to raise the benchmark rate by 75bp, to 7.00%, signalled that policymakers remain in inflation-fighting mode and the tightening cycle has further to run. That said... 24th November 2022 · 3 mins read
