Frontier Markets Wrap Debt risks: the not so bad, the bad and the ugly Sovereign debt risks are back in focus as some frontiers appear to be drifting closer to default. We remain most concerned about default risks in Tunisia and Pakistan, particularly in light of this... 12th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How feasible is a BRICS currency? Over the weekend, President-elect Donald Trump threatened a 100% import tariff on the BRICS countries unless they pledge not to create their own currency. In this note from 2023, we outlined the... 4th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: the next default domino to fall? Concerns about Kenya’s public finances have intensified with the government recently delaying the payment of public employees’ salaries. Policymakers appear willing to honour public debt obligations... 3rd May 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI last month was due to a jump in inventories, while other indicators pointed to further weakness in the sector. The country’s severe energy crisis continued... 2nd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly MPR shining light on monetary policy thinking in SA The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR), published this week, made it clear that the central bank is increasingly incorporating fiscal risks into its interest rate projections... 28th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Power cuts ripping through South Africa’s economy Persistent and deepening electricity outages in South Africa are wreaking economic havoc. Almost half of generating capacity was offline this month, triggering severe “loadshedding”. Output in energy... 27th April 2023 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack The monetary policy tide is (slowly) turning EM central banks have, in general, remained in hawkish mood over recent weeks. Tightening cycles have continued in Mexico, Colombia and South Africa in response to high inflation, while policymakers... 24th April 2023 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Inflation shocks, Ghana growth The surprise rises in inflation in March in Sub-Saharan Africa's two biggest economies are likely to put pressure on policymakers in Nigeria and South Africa to raise interest rates further. Elsewhere... 21st April 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Malaria vaccine: a potentially big long-term boost The economic impact of the Oxford malaria vaccine, which has now been approved by regulators in Ghana and Nigeria, will depend on the pace and breadth of the rollout and how long immunity lasts for... 20th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Feb.) February’s weak hard activity figures out of South Africa suggest that stronger data from January were a blip and, following a contraction in GDP in Q4, increase the chances that the economy has... 19th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) South Africa’s headline inflation reading for March came in stronger than expected, at 7.1% y/y, and core inflation remains uncomfortably high for policymakers at the Reserve Bank. With persistent... 19th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly A breakthrough in the debt restructuring standoff? Glimmers of hope have emerged this week about unlocking the stalemate over the global debt restructuring framework, with encouraging signs for negotiations in Zambia and Ghana. But we fear that the... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Investment-lull in Nigeria, “disaster” no more in SA? The extreme weakness of FDI into Nigeria last year, shown in data published this week, underscores the scale of the economic challenges facing the new government. Without a marked turnaround in... 6th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook First to hike, first to cut Aggregate EM GDP growth will be much stronger this year than last, but that’s almost entirely a result of China’s reopening rebound. Growth in most other EMs will be weaker and will generally... 4th April 2023 · 27 mins read
Africa Economics Update Activity in Nigeria slumped in Q1 Data suggest that Nigeria’s key oil sector perked up in early-2023, but this was more than offset by weakness in the non-oil economy on the back of bungled demonetisation efforts. And we expect... 4th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI last month paints a downbeat picture of a sector unable to escape from a severe energy crisis. The figures are consistent with manufacturing output... 3rd April 2023 · 2 mins read
