Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up unexpectedly in October, to 7.6% y/y, and the jump in core inflation will be a particular worry for policymakers. Another 75bp hike in the repo rate... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN shifting in less hawkish direction The Central Bank of Nigeria raised the benchmark rate by 100bp, to 16.50%, today, and MPC members appear to be itching to take their foot off the monetary policy brakes. But we suspect that the... 22nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Hawks to rule in upcoming SA & Nigeria rate decisions In next week’s MPC meetings in South Africa and Nigeria, inflation concerns are likely to hold sway over economic woes, and we expect both central banks to keep raising interest rates. South Africa’s... 18th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Sep.) September’s hard activity data out of South Africa were a mixed bag, but it looks like the economy narrowly avoided another contraction in Q3 (and thus a technical recession). Even so, with headwinds... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct.) Data out of Nigeria showing a pick-up in inflation to 21.1% y/y in October offered little sign that price pressures are abating. And that’s before the effects of recent flooding and currency weakness... 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Manufacturing boost to SA, Kenya’s public finances The surprising strength of South Africa’s manufacturing data for September has lengthened the odds that the economy was in a technical recession over Q2 and Q3. And in Kenya, bond markets have rallied... 11th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s economy heading from bad to worse Nigeria’s demonetisation efforts are likely to add to already-high economic costs of the country’s unorthodox policies. The resulting currency falls will fuel inflation further and disruptions to... 10th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Strikes in SA, naira under pressure, Ethiopia ceasefire South Africa is on the cusp of large public sector strikes which will deal another blow to the recovery and raise the risk of fiscal slippage just a week after the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Frontier currencies in the firing line Currencies in some of the largest frontier markets, including Nigeria and Vietnam, have come under pressure recently as the external backdrop has deteriorated and domestic policy concerns have mounted... 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria and the risks stemming from demonetisation The Nigerian central bank’s plans to replace high-value bank notes by the end of January will, if India’s experience in 2016 is anything to go by, disrupt activity and fail to address some of the... 3rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI picked up in October but persistent electricity supply problems, tight fiscal and monetary policy and a worsening external backdrop mean that the economic recovery... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Here comes the slowdown The past month has brought further signs that economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are in the midst of a slowdown. The latest activity data out of South Africa suggest that, after GDP contracted in Q2... 31st October 2022 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly MTBPS: last of the good news on SA’s public finances? South Africa’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement on Wednesday provided further good news on the state of the public finances, but pressure for public sector wage increases is just one of a number of... 28th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds set stage for sluggish growth EM GDP growth has slowed sharply this year and is likely to remain sluggish in 2023 and 2024 as weak external demand and tight financial conditions take their toll. Having started hiking rates much... 27th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: public finances in better health, but slippage likely South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement published today showed that the government hasn’t (yet) been tempted to spend the windfall from the improvement in the public finances this year. And... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly What to expect from South Africa’s MTBPS? South Africa’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement, scheduled for Wednesday, is unlikely to provide the drama that the UK’s “mini-Budget” did, but we suspect that the government will tilt fiscal... 21st October 2022 · 6 mins read