Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4) Nigeria’s economy recorded a surprisingly large pick-up in GDP growth, to 3.5% y/y, in Q4 but recent disruptions caused by the demonetisation process are likely to have dampened growth at the start of... 22nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM investment: weak outlook and clear divergence EM investment surged far above pre-pandemic levels last year, but there was a clear divergence across countries and we think investment growth will slow in 2023. One worrying development is that... 20th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA budget preview, final stretch ahead of Nigeria’s polls South Africa’s mounting economic and political challenges, including the deepening energy crisis, set the stage for the fiscal scales to tip towards providing more support and away from fiscal... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Event Africa Drop-In: Nigeria’s crunch presidential election 1677160800 Nigerians go to the polls on 25th February for general elections which could put the country on a very different path.
Africa Economics Update Five key questions on Nigeria’s public finances No matter who wins the race to be Nigeria’s next president, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to remain on an upwards path in the near-term. But victory for an opposition candidate could make the... 15th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Dec.) & Nigeria CPI (Jan.) December’s hard activity figures out of South Africa point to a mild contraction in GDP in Q4 and indicate that weakness in the economy is spreading beyond industrial sectors. Elsewhere, the pick-up... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) Inflation in South Africa continued to decline, to 6.9% y/y in January, but we think that the Reserve Bank will err on the side of delivering a final 25bp rate hike to (7.50%) at the next policy... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa triggers disaster law, Nigeria’s polls The declaration of a state of disaster in South Africa’s State of the Nation Address over the deepening energy crisis has grabbed the headlines and, in the small print, there were signs of a... 10th February 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s sorry state of the nation South Africa’s upcoming State of the Nation Address will undoubtedly focus on addressing the deepening energy crisis. But there’s little that the authorities can do to ease power cuts in the near-term... 3rd February 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Unpacking Nigeria’s economic challenges In the latest of our Election Watch series ahead of Nigeria’s polls, we dissect the near-term economic challenges facing the next administration. Boosting oil production, overhauling the foreign... 3rd February 2023 · 5 mins read
Precious Metals Update South Africa’s platinum group metal supply to struggle The global supply of platinum group metals is likely to be increasingly strained by electricity shortages in South Africa. This poor supply outlook is a key reason why we forecast the prices of these... 3rd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks well placed to face rising loan losses EM banks will face an increase in loan losses this year, but the good news is that banking sectors on the whole appear well-placed to absorb these, particularly in parts of Latin America, Emerging... 2nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry: brighter outlook, but headwinds persist The manufacturing PMIs picked up in most emerging markets in January, offering hope that the worst for EM industry may have now passed. But activity remains soft against the backdrop of high interest... 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI remained essentially unchanged, at 53.0, in January, but while the breakdown provided mixed messages, we think that the underlying picture for the manufacturing sector... 1st February 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Growth faltering in region’s biggest economies While the economic outlook in much of the world has turned less downbeat in recent weeks, the prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa’s two biggest economies have, if anything, got gloomier due to homegrown... 31st January 2023 · 12 mins read
Africa Economics Update Loadshedding tilts SARB’s focus towards growth The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) smaller-than-expected 25bp interest rate hike today and large cuts to its growth forecast make clear that its focus is pivoting to concerns about activity... 26th January 2023 · 3 mins read
