Africa Economics Weekly Gauging the possible El Niño impact on Africa The El Niño weather pattern is on its way and threatens to hit agricultural production across much of Africa over the coming months, curtailing GDP growth, pushing up inflation and dealing a fresh... 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Tanzania: near-term growth restrained, gas hopes bright Tanzania’s economic growth will remain sluggish by past standards over the next couple of years due to the effects of persistent drought and tight fiscal policy. But with policymaking shifting in a... 6th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell in June to its lowest level since mid-2021 and remains consistent with declines in output in the sector over the coming months. The survey also shows that price... 3rd July 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya restarts tightening, case for a hold in SA builds Kenya’s central bank hiked interest rates by 100bp, to 10.50%, at an unscheduled meeting this week. The move was pinned on an increase in inflation in May, but more than anything it seems to be a... 30th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Risk premia fall back Risk premia have fallen across the region over the past month. In the region’s largest economy, Nigeria, that has come on the back of a marked policy shift since President Tinubu took office in late... 28th June 2023 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Focus Tinubu’s first steps: near-term pain, long-term gain? The removal of fuel subsidies and the devaluation of the naira are likely to push inflation in Nigeria towards 35% y/y, which will prompt further interest rate hikes by the central bank and weigh on... 27th June 2023 · 11 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Resilience giving way to recession Most advanced economies have so far dodged the recessions that we, and many others, had expected to start in the first half of this year. The relative resilience of activity can be pinned on several... 27th June 2023 · 46 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia debt deal, austerity in Kenya, SARB to hold? This week saw Zambia edge closer to getting a debt restructuring over the line, but an agreement with official creditors suggested that there remain sticking points when it comes to negotiations with... 23rd June 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of policy shifts in Turkey and Nigeria Governments in Turkey and Nigeria have started to turn away from unorthodox economic policies in recent weeks, and in both cases currencies have been allowed to move closer to fair value. The key... 21st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (May) The larger-than-expected decline in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 6.3% y/y, reinforces our view that the tightening cycle is over and that interest rates will be kept at 8.25% at next... 21st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Bola goes big, but big enough? This week’s plunge in the Nigerian naira marked the latest positive step by President Bola Tinubu as he seeks to overhaul the economy, but there are still plenty of reasons to be cautious that this... 16th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Recent EM export resilience starting to fade EM goods exports held up relatively well at the start of the year but more recent data suggest that resilience is waning. With demand from advanced economies set to soften, the boost from auto exports... 16th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (May) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose to a fresh 17-year high of 22.4% y/y and the recent removal of fuel subsidies alongside yesterday’s devaluation of the naira mean that it is likely to surge to... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria devalues the naira Reports that the Central Bank of Nigeria has devalued the naira would, if confirmed, represent another positive policy step by the new Tinubu administration. But we retain our reservations this is a... 14th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Apr.) April’s activity data out of South Africa suggest that, after dodging a technical recession in Q1, the economy made a bright start to the second quarter. But external and domestic headwinds, including... 14th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Home-grown and external headwinds to slow growth Sub-Saharan Africa is set to record its weakest growth this year, outside of the pandemic, since 2016 as the drags from domestic headwinds are exacerbated by a less favourable external environment... 13th June 2023 · 3 mins read
