Africa Economics Weekly SARB warns of higher risk premia, Tinubu takes office One new threat to the inflation outlook that the South African Reserve Bank highlighted at its policy meeting on Thursday was a higher country risk premium which is fuelling downward pressure on the... 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Central banks in SA and Nigeria still in hawkish mood Central banks in the region’s two largest economies, Nigeria and South Africa, both hiked interest rates this month and, whereas attention elsewhere is turning to rate cuts, the risks seem to be... 25th May 2023 · 12 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB keeps eyes firmly focussed on inflation The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) hiked interest rates by 50bp, to 8.25%, today on the back of policymakers’ growing concerns about the inflationary impact of persistent power cuts. For now, we... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: The case for EM equity outperformance 1685628000 During our latest monthly dive into the big themes in emerging markets, the team discussed the macro and market forces that could see EM equities breaking their recent run of underperformance again
Africa Economics Update CBN tightens further as inflation threats mount The Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to raise its policy rate by 50bp, to 18.50%, reaffirmed that officials continue to focus on tackling high and rising inflation at the expense of supporting the... 24th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Nigeria GDP (Q1) Nigeria’s economic growth slowed to just 2.3% y/y in Q1 as the damaging effects of a botched demonetisation process more than offset an easing of the drag from the oil sector. With the rise in oil... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate dropped back to 6.8% y/y in April but the further strengthening of core inflation will alarm Reserve Bank officials about the impact of loadshedding on price... 24th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa and AGOA, Nigeria inflation, Ghana-IMF Allegations that South Africa has supplied arms to Russia has led to calls for the country to lose preferential trade access to the US via the African Growth and Opportunities Act which, while not a... 19th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s electricity crisis threatening stagflation A quick solution to South Africa’s energy crisis is nowhere to be seen. Not only will power cuts remain a drag on economy but there are growing concerns that they are fuelling inflation, threatening... 18th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Mar.) March’s activity data out of South Africa suggest that the economy is likely to have skirted a technical recession, but the outlook is bleak as the intensification of power cuts weighs on activity and... 17th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Where will South Africa sit in a fracturing world? South Africa has traditionally sought to be non-aligned and, in our ‘mapping decoupling’ work, we placed it in neither the US nor the China camp. But recent developments suggest that it could be... 16th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The rand ain’t what it used to be The sharp drop in the South African rand this week is in large part driven by one-off factors, including the news that the country’s government may have supplied arms to Russia and thereby put itself... 12th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa entering a perfect storm It’s been a week to forget for South Africa, in which fears emerged that the improvement in the public finances is stalling and concerns about (even more) intense loadshedding surfaced. That was... 12th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Debt risks: the not so bad, the bad and the ugly Sovereign debt risks are back in focus as some frontiers appear to be drifting closer to default. We remain most concerned about default risks in Tunisia and Pakistan, particularly in light of this... 12th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How feasible is a BRICS currency? The idea of a new BRICS currency to settle trade or hold in reserves instead of the dollar has been doing the rounds recently. This could be modelled on the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights. But getting... 4th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: the next default domino to fall? Concerns about Kenya’s public finances have intensified with the government recently delaying the payment of public employees’ salaries. Policymakers appear willing to honour public debt obligations... 3rd May 2023 · 5 mins read
