Capital Daily What to make of latest sector performance in the S&P 500 Although the relative performance of the three “big-tech” sectors of the S&P 500 has underwhelmed recently, we suspect that they will be at, or near, the front of the pack again in 2024. 5th December 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data show growing labour market slack November JOLTS data suggest that labour market slack is growing, even as payroll growth remains relatively resilient. With signs pointing to a sharper fall in wage growth ahead, the Fed can be... 5th December 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Little relief in sight for first-time buyers First-time buyer (FTB) loan originations have been weak for over a year now. That’s mainly down to higher mortgage rates which have made buying too expensive for many younger adults. And as we think... 5th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Softer landing, but the runway is longer With higher interest rates taking longer to percolate through the economy, we now think the recession will be shallower and GDP growth will stay weak throughout all of 2024. It’s a softer landing for... 5th December 2023 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA is done hiking rates Given the high bar for further rate hikes, we’re more confident than ever that the Reserve Bank of Australia is done tightening policy. That said, there is a good chance that the cash rate will remain... 5th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Dec. 23) 5th December 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 23) All-property values are down by 12.5% since mid-2022, but we expect an eventual decline of above 20%. Much of the correction at the all-property level is driven by our forecast for cap rates to go... 4th December 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update Falling Treasury yields may provide more respite for REITs Although we expect US equity office REITs to benefit further from falling long-dated Treasury yields, we continue to think that their long-run prospects are blighted by a structural reduction in... 4th December 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Focus Could an AI boom transform the budget outlook? With the budget deficit rebounding over the last year and Congress characterised by partisan dysfunction, the odds of a full-blown fiscal crisis developing over the next decade are rising. The US... 4th December 2023 · 20 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Negative rates will end next year Following a strong 2023, GDP growth is set to slow towards potential next year and the labour market will tread water for now. However, with the virtuous cycle between consumer prices and inflation... 4th December 2023 · 18 mins read
US Economics Weekly Despite strong growth, core inflation normalising This week’s modest upward revision to third-quarter GDP growth was certainly eye-catching. It suggests that the US economy is not just surviving the surge in interest rates over the last couple of... 1st December 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Brighter past, gloomier future The revisions to the national accounts leave the post-pandemic recovery looking stronger than we thought. But that is partly due to intense inventory building, which leaves the economy vulnerable to a... 1st December 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs don’t alter the weak outlook for 2024 The manufacturing PMI surveys have overstated the weakness in industrial production over the past couple years. But, even taking this into account, November’s PMIs suggest that while global industry... 1st December 2023 · 2 mins read
