US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack Recent falls in Treasury yields have bought mortgage rates back down from a peak of 8% in October to 7% earlier than we had anticipated, setting the scene for a recovery in housing market activity in... 14th December 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Few signs BoE is starting to contemplate rate cuts The Bank of England sprung no surprises, leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the third time in a row and pushing back against the prospect of near-term interest rate cuts. While the recent soft wage... 14th December 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The rebound in retail sales in November provides further illustration that the continued rapid decline in inflation is not coming at the cost of significantly weaker economic growth. 14th December 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (14 Dec. 2023) The Bank of England sprung no surprises, leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the third time in a row and pushing back against the prospect of near-term interest rate cuts. While the recent soft wage... 14th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Japan Chart pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth should rebound modestly in the fourth quarter but we expect it will remain soft in 2024... 14th December 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Nov. 23) Even though employment growth remains strong, job creation isn’t fast enough to absorb the surge in the labour force. Accordingly, we expect the unemployment rate to keep rising. 14th December 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov. 23) Declining mortgage rates have already generated a significant improvement in demand, with the new buyer enquiries and sales expectations balances recording their strongest readings for over a year and... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q3 2023) Output slumped anew in Q3, and we suspect it remained in contractionary territory this quarter as well. Accordingly, we think the RBNZ will be cutting rates a lot sooner than it is currently... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed's intransigence typical ahead of a turning point The Fed’s reluctance to acknowledge that it will need to begin cutting its policy rate soon – to prevent a run-up in real rates – was predictable enough based on its intransigence ahead of previous... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Downward trend in mortgage rates unlikely to continue Falls in financial market interest rate expectations mean that mortgage rates will drop to a six-month low in December. That will support a further recovery in housing market activity in the near term... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rising arrears not translating into forced sales The detailed mortgage lending data for Q3 show that the high cost of borrowing has continued to price many out of the market and made new BTL investment unattractive. But while arrears are rising... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Contraction in October sets scene for stagnation in 2024 The 0.3% m/m fall in real GDP in October (consensus forecast 0.0%, CE forecast -0.2%) suggests that the economy may go nowhere again in Q4 or perhaps is in the mildest of mild recessions. That may... 13th December 2023 · 4 mins read
