US Economics Update Risks to our 2024 outlook There is considerable uncertainty surrounding our forecast that GDP will increase by 1.2% next year, but we have a relatively high conviction in our call that core PCE inflation will be very close to... 18th December 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (Nov) Net lending on commercial real estate by banks resurged in November, despite signs from other data that lenders would continue to pull back from real estate lending. That said, the $4.4bn of net... 18th December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Dec. 23) Property yields rose further in Q3, but with risk-free rates now falling back, we think they will flat-line in Q4. That will help stabilise capital values, but given historically narrow yield spreads... 18th December 2023 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Your questions after the latest central bank meetings We recently held an online Drop-In session to discuss the December policy meetings and the outlook for monetary policy in the year ahead. (See a recording here.) This Update answers several of the... 18th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update How much cushion do excess savings provide? Australian households have built up more excess savings than those in other large, advanced economies and we estimate that those savings will only be depleted by the end of 2025. Even so, we still... 18th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Household debt service ratio will continue to rise Household net worth fell in the third quarter, although the recent resurgence in bond and equity prices means that should soon be reversed. It is too soon to sound the all-clear for households’... 15th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Dec.) November was a weak month all round for housing, with prices falling at a faster pace and starts plunging. Lenders are already cutting mortgage rates in response to the recent drop in bond yields... 15th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to weaker activity and employment Although the flash PMIs ticked up in most cases in December, they suggest that advanced economies will start 2024 on a weak footing. Meanwhile, outside of the US, the subdued outlook for demand seems... 15th December 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed & markets catching up with inflation reality The Fed’s embrace of interest rate cuts next year is understandable when the latest data suggest that core PCE inflation is rapidly closing in on the 2% target. 15th December 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE too hawkish, investors have gone too far the other way We agree with investors that the Bank of England's stance this week was overly hawkish. Even so, we think investors are over-estimating how quickly rates will be cut. Given the UK economy is not as... 15th December 2023 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Another year of double-digit value falls in 2024 Persistent weak growth and elevated (albeit soon-to-be falling) interest rates continue to spell trouble for real estate values. We see NOI growth softening further over the next year as the... 15th December 2023 · 22 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as the lagged... 15th December 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Dec. 2023) The rise in the flash composite activity PMI, from 50.7 in November to 51.7 in December, increased the chances of the economy avoiding a contraction in Q4. But the stickiness of price pressures will... 15th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Migration curbs won’t adversely dent labour supply The ongoing boom in net overseas migration to Australia is helping to take the heat out of the labour market. With public attitudes towards mass migration souring, the government announced this week... 15th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Overheating in services adds to case for tighter policy The Tankan revealed that capacity shortages in the services sector are now just as pronounced as they were before the pandemic. The survey also suggested that inflationary pressures in non... 15th December 2023 · 7 mins read
