Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Nov. 23) With price pressures cooling in earnest, we’re growing increasingly confident in our call that the RBA will start to cut rates as early as May. 9th January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Five key calls for US commercial real estate in 2024 Our total returns forecasts for 2024 are significantly below consensus, as we predict that value falls will reach double digits for the second consecutive year. Retail stands out as the only sector... 9th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Is the future really brighter for the US office sector? A continued pull-back in the spreads of US private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) since the start of 2024, at a time when those of US high-yield corporate bonds have edged up (see... 9th January 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update State & local government spending boom set to end The surge in spending by state & local governments has boosted economic growth over the past year but, with tax revenues falling back in recent quarters, that boom is now set to fade. 9th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Nov.) Although retail sales bounced back with a vengeance in November, that result largely reflected a one-off boost from Black Friday sales. With underlying momentum in consumer spending weaker than the... 9th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Long-term debt sustainability still under threat The recent sharp fall in Japan’s ratio of public debt to GDP reflects one-off factors that won’t be sustained. While the influence of rising bond yields on the trajectory of the public finances will... 8th January 2024 · 18 mins read
US Housing Market Update 2023 in review In what was an extremely volatile year for the housing market, we made two key forecasting errors. Firstly, we didn’t anticipate the extent of the rise in mortgage rates. Because of that, we... 5th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing market starting to improve Conditions in the housing market seem to be improving, with the local real estate board data pointing to a big improvement in the home sales-to-new listing ratio in December. While the unseasonably... 5th January 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed still coy about QT end-game The minutes of the mid-December FOMC meeting did not dissuade us that the Fed will start to cut interest rates from this March onwards. Despite now projecting more interest rate cuts this year, Fed... 5th January 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Are we too downbeat on the economy in 2024? The economic news over the past week has highlighted three upsides to our forecast that the economy will stagnate in 2024. First, the fall in some mortgage rates to below 4% means the effect of future... 5th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Dec.) The unchanged level of employment in December is consistent with the message from the business surveys that labour demand has weakened significantly in recent months. Nonetheless, with wage growth... 5th January 2024 · 2 mins read
