US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Dec.) The muted rise in manufacturing output in December shows that the sector continues to struggle, even as consumption growth remains strong. 17th January 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Dec.) The 0.6% m/m rise in retail sales in December may have been supported by the unseasonably mild weather, but it still means there is no sign that households are buckling under the pressure of higher... 17th January 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Dec. 2023) The unexpected rise in CPI inflation from 3.9% in November to 4.0% in December (consensus and CE forecast 3.8%) is disappointing. But we still expect favourable base effects and a fall in utility... 17th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We expect GDP growth to slow to a crawl this year, weighed down by weak consumption growth and... 17th January 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Stubborn rental inflation won’t prevent RBA rate cuts In recent months, there have been growing concerns that the rapid rise in rental inflation will force the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep rates higher for longer. To be sure, leading indicators... 17th January 2024 · 15 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Jan.) The decline in mortgage rates appears to be supporting demand, with home sales rebounding last month. While prices continued to fall in December, the sales-to-new listing ratio is now pointing to... 16th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial to join offices as worst-performing sector We are downbeat on industrial total returns over the next two years compared to the consensus because of our relatively pessimistic views on both rents and cap rates. And we think the risks to long... 16th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Dec.) Although the rise in headline inflation in December was mainly due to gasoline price base effects, the more worrying development is that the CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures both rose by a larger... 16th January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (Dec) Net lending on commercial real estate (CRE) by banks was positive again in December, rising by $4.2bn in the month. (See Table 1.) That said, the monthly change was broadly in line with the average in... 16th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Nov./Dec. 2023) Another big drop in wage growth in November supports our view that domestic inflationary pressures are fading fairly fast. But the ongoing tightness of the labour market will probably mean that the... 16th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will lift policy rate to 0.1% in March The Bank of Japan may revise up its medium-term inflation forecasts at the upcoming meeting but will almost certainly leave policy settings unchanged. We expect the Bank to lift its policy rate to 0.1... 16th January 2024 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update Surveys show inflation expectations are still too high The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys continue to flash warning signs about the outlook for the economy and labour market. The normalisation of inflation expectations remains... 15th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: ECB, BoE, Fed meetings – Reading the tea leaves for rate cut hints 1706799600 We don’t expect the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank or Bank of England to cut rates in their first meetings of 2024, but they may drop hints about when monetary easing could start.
Event ANZ Drop-In: Australia Q4 CPI and the case for an early RBA cut 1706670000 There’s a popular view that the RBA won’t start cutting interest rates until later in the second half of this year.
Event Drop-In: What to expect from financial markets in 2024 1706108400 Will US equities continue to lead the pack in 2024? How will monetary policymaking affect the level of yields? What will this mean for FX markets?
Event US Housing Drop-In: What do falling mortgage rates mean for the market in 2024? 1706022000 US house prices saw strong gains in 2023, defying widespread expectations for them to fall as surging mortgage rates crimped supply.
