Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Feb. 2024) The sharp drop in unemployment in February was likely a blip, rather than a trend. With job vacancies continuing to fall back, we suspect the unemployment rate will rise anew in the months ahead. 21st March 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (Feb. 24) The trade balance didn’t fall nearly as much as most had anticipated in February and net trade will only provide a small drag on Q1 GDP growth. 20th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q4 2023) With the New Zealand economy in a double-dip recession, we’re sticking to our guns that the RBNZ will cut rates more aggressively than most anticipate. 20th March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed still on track for a June rate cut Despite upward revisions to the median projections for both GDP growth and core PCE inflation, the Fed’s median forecast for interest rates still shows a cumulative 75bp of policy loosening this year... 20th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: Global Markets Outlook – What to expect from equities, bonds and FX markets 1713362400 Our markets team recently held an online briefing all about how we expect global equities, bonds, and currencies to perform through the end of this year and into 2025.
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024) The second bigger-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in as many months, from 4.0% in January to 3.4% in February probably won’t make the Bank of England sound any more dovish when it leaves interest... 20th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Credit spreads during equity bubbles: how low, how long? Credit spreads aren’t bound to fall further if a bubble continues to inflate in the stock market, judging by what happened in the US in the second half of the 1990s. 19th March 2024 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Feb. 2024) The strong rebound in housing starts last month confirmed January’s slump was a weather-related blip. Although we expected starts to bounce back, February’s data were even stronger than we had... 19th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024) The surprise fall in headline inflation to 2.8%, from 2.9%, is further reason to expect the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates soon, although we still think it will wait until June rather than... 19th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Global Economic Outlook – On course for a soft landing 1712844000 The global economic outlook is subject to various uncertainties which have left forecasters split over the possibilities of a hard landing, soft landing or e
Japan Economics Update Ultra-loose policy ends but tightening cycle unlikely The Bank of Japan today called time on more than a decade of ultra-loose policy settings, but we don’t think it will lift its policy rate any further over the coming months. 19th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA tones down hawkish bias ever so slightly The RBA sounded a touch less hawkish at today’s meeting and we think the Bank will start to lower interest rates by August. 19th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (Mar. 23) The Bank of Japan ended ultra-loose monetary policy today but we don’t think it will raise its policy rate any further. 19th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Mar. 23) 19th March 2024 · 2 mins read
