Canada Economics Weekly Stars aligning for a June interest rate cut The surprise fall in February leaves CPI inflation on track to average 2.8% this quarter, well below the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 3.2%. As the decline in inflation pressures was broad-based, there... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE preparing the ground for interest rate cuts Two key developments at this week’s Bank of England policy meeting implied the Bank is shifting closer to cutting interest rates. And more striking were the comments by the Bank Governor in an... 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook A tough year in store, but retail returns will be positive This year is being flagged by many as the year the recovery starts, but there is still a substantial amount of pain (and value falls) to come. We think activity will gradually pick up in H2, but... 22nd March 2024 · 22 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Feb. 2024) Unchanged retail sales volumes in February (CE forecast 0.0% m/m, consensus -0.4% m/m), as shoppers largely shrugged off the unusually wet weather, provided further evidence that a rebound in retail... 22nd March 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong labour market complicates picture for RBA Although the RBA toned down its hawkish bias at its meeting on Tuesday, yesterday's frothy jobs report may well spur a reversal on that front. Indeed, the labour market appears to be holding up a lot... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ won’t hike rates any further With underlying inflation continuing to moderate, we don’t expect the Bank of Japan to follow up the ending of negative interest rates with further policy rate hikes. But while the Bank has kept its... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Euro-zone lagging behind at the end of Q1 The flash PMIs for March suggest that the euro-zone economy is still flatlining, while the UK and Japan seem to be pulling out of recession heading into Q2. The survey indicators of price pressures... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook Inflation to fall further as GDP growth slows Although we expect GDP growth to slow to a below-potential pace over the next few quarters, we then anticipate a pick-up late this year, as monetary policy flips from a headwind to a tailwind. Our... 21st March 2024 · 16 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Feb. 2024) Existing home sales rose in February which we think largely reflects the sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year. But borrowing costs have been rising so far in 2024, which in the near... 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Slight dovish tilt, and BoE will become more dovish before long With the Bank of England striking a slightly more dovish tone whilst keeping interest rates at 5.25% and inflation likely to fall further and faster than the Bank expects, we still think a rate cut in... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (21st Mar. 2024) The Bank of England sprung no surprises, leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the fifth time in a row and, despite no MPC members no longer voting to raise interest rates, it retained its relatively... 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Mar. 2024) While the composite activity PMI fell a touch in March, it still suggest that the UK economy has probably moved out of recession. This implies there is upside risk to our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 0... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) The flash PMIs for March suggest that the euro-zone economy is still flatlining, in line with our forecast. Meanwhile, the price components of the surveys suggest that underlying price pressures are... 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Feb. 2024) February’s disappointing public finances figures suggest that the OBR’s new 2023/24 borrowing forecast published in March’s Budget already looks too optimistic. But this may not prevent the government... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
