Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Feb. 24) 28th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (March 2024) The EC business and consumer survey for March reinforces the message that the economy is close to recession and that, although price pressures in the services sector eased somewhat, they remain... 27th March 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Monetary policy will remain restrictive for longer Australia’s GDP growth will remain soft throughout the first half of the year so the recent stalling in inflation should be followed by a renewed moderation. However, as the labour market remains very... 27th March 2024 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Feb. 24) Headline Inflation in February once again came in below the expectations of both the analyst consensus and the RBA. But trimmed mean inflation unexpectedly saw a leg up, which could give the RBA pause... 27th March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Software increasingly driving productivity gains We still believe that the current productivity boom is mainly a cyclical phenomenon, as tight labour market conditions have forced firms to expand output by boosting the efficiency of their existing... 26th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Increasing economic slack to trigger interest rate cuts We expect weak GDP growth of 0.8% this year, and a fall in inflation to less than 2% next year, to persuade the Bank of Canada to cut its policy rate back to 2.5% by mid-2025. A recovery in... 26th March 2024 · 14 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) A pause in the fall in mortgage rates and a rise in the number of homes coming onto the market mean house price growth will stall in the near term. But our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut further... 26th March 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jan. 2024) The fairly large gain in house prices in January points to a rebound in price growth driven by the fall in mortgage rates towards the end of last year. Although its early in the year, today’s data fit... 26th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Shrinking BoJ balance sheet won’t have big impact While the Bank of Japan’s JGB holdings have started to shrink and will continue to do so now that Yield Curve Control is over, we think that the normalisation of the Bank’s balance sheet could take up... 26th March 2024 · 12 mins read
Canada Economics Update Population growth to plunge The government’s plan to cut temporary resident numbers over 2025 to 2027 will result in the weakest three years for population growth in Canada’s 157-year history. While it might not be enough to... 25th March 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Renting to remain substantially cheaper than buying As mortgage rates fall, we think the difference between the cost of buying and renting will narrow from the current all-time highs. But even by 2026, renting will remain by far the more cost-effective... 25th March 2024 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Faltering consumer spending reinforces our view that GDP growth will slow this year, although that slowdown is likely to be modest. After a disappointing couple of months for inflation, easing demand... 25th March 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Feb. 2024) February’s tiny drop in new home sales cut short what appeared to be the beginning of a recovery in recent months. Even though the drop was extremely small, it still potentially casts some doubt over... 25th March 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Inflation: From too high to too low After having been too high for the past three years, inflation in the UK will be too low for the next three years, and much lower than in the US and the euro-zone. Not only do we think that CPI... 25th March 2024 · 17 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed opens door a little further to June rate cut The Fed wasn’t as hawkish as we had expected this week and, assuming the recent upturn in core inflation proves temporary, there is still a good chance that interest rate cuts will begin in June. 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
