Capital Daily

Banking on a soft landing

It’s perhaps surprising that financials have outperformed the S&P 500 during the recent bout of market turbulence. (See Chart 1.) After all, Treasury yields have fallen and the outlook for the US...

27th August 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Updated fair value analysis means a lower peak for yields

Our fair value analysis suggests that appraisal-based NOI yields need to rise by 50-60 bps from Q2 levels. But downgrades to our expectations for Treasury yields in the latter years of our forecast...

27th August 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jun. 2024)

The muted 0.2% rise in the national Case-Shiller house price index in June was no shock considering that buyer demand collapsed that month, while supply kept growing. With the spring selling season...

27th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Producer price inflation set to slow further

The persistent strength in producer price inflation probably still mostly reflects the lagged influence of the surge in import costs rather than any pick-up in wage growth. If the yen keeps...

27th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Aug. 2024)

Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer...

26th August 2024 · 1 min read

US Economics Weekly

25bp or 50bp?

The dovish speech from Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium suggests that the Fed will be choosing between a 25bp and a 50bp cut at its meeting in September. A 50bp cut would look less...

23rd August 2024 · 6 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

New Home Sales (Jul. 2024)

The surge in new home sales in July was driven by pent-up buyers taking advantage of the sharp drop in borrowing costs last month, after having been sidelined earlier this year by high mortgage rates...

23rd August 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tone at Jackson Hole today and pledge to do “everything we can to support a strong labour market” implies that a 50 bp cut could be on the table at the September...

23rd August 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

July CPI cements the case for another 25 bp cut

The muted gains in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in July make another interest rate cut at the September meeting seem inevitable. The Bank will be encouraged by the second soft...

23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Inflation to stay above the 2% target for longer

The 10% rise in the Ofgem utility price cap due to take effect on 1st October means that we now expect CPI inflation to rebound from 2.2% in July to 2.9% in November and not fall below 2.0% until June...

23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Retail Sales (Jun. 2024)

Despite the 0.1% m/m gain in June, retail sales volumes contracted last quarter, suggesting that household consumption growth also slowed. Prospects for the third quarter look better, with the...

23rd August 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Too early to declare end of tightening cycle

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s view that financial markets remain unstable suggests that the Bank may not raise rates as soon as October as we’re anticipating. However, Ueda reiterated that the Bank...

23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA will look past buoyant public demand

We are resending this publication because we have adjusted our forecast for the monthly CPI indicator due next week. The minutes of the RBA's August meeting revealed that the Bank remains concerned...

23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Consumer Prices (July 24)

With underlying inflation falling below 2% for the first time since 2022 and set to decline further, the case for further monetary tightening is starting to diminish.

23rd August 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

US Real Estate Drop-In: Why retail should be back on investors' radars

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After six consecutive years of underperformance, retail outperformed the all-property average in 2023.