US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Houston climbs to the top of the apartment rankings We expect a surge in completions and a slowdown in employment growth to push vacancy higher in most of our 17 metros over the next year or so. Atlanta and Houston are two key exceptions to this rule... 4th April 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Surging stock market a tailwind for consumers The continued surge in the stock market that we forecast is likely to drive household net wealth to a record high as a share of incomes and provide a tailwind to consumption growth. But that shouldn’t... 4th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Unemployment needs to reach 5% to cool inflation We believe that the “narrow path” of returning inflation to target while keeping unemployment below pre-pandemic levels is wishful thinking. The Reserve Bank of Australia won’t bring domestic cost... 4th April 2024 · 15 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Case for cuts strengthening While the recent inflation data have strengthened the case for interest rate cuts, we suspect that the Bank of Canada will need at least one more month of similar data before it loosens policy. The... 3rd April 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Wage data to watch ahead of the ECB’s June meeting ECB officials have stressed that evidence of easing wage growth will be key in determining the timing of the first rate cut. Accordingly, this Update assesses which of the euro-zone’s numerous wage... 3rd April 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus Excess Savings RIP We think that it is now time for the curtains to close on the so-called ‘excess savings’ debate. While unusually high savings accumulated by households during the pandemic helped prevent recessions in... 3rd April 2024 · 20 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The recent easing in price pressures and the Bank of England's new-found dovish slant has convinced investors that interest rates will be cut a bit further over the next two years. But we still think... 3rd April 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (Mar. 2024) Mortgage rates dipping back below 7% helped mortgage applications for home purchase edge slightly higher in March. But recent increases in the 10-year Treasury yield point to mortgage rates climbing... 3rd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will start loosening policy in Q3 We expect the RBNZ to hold rates steady at its meeting next Wednesday. But with the economy in a deep slump and inflation clearly on the way down, the Committee is likely to tone down its tightening... 3rd April 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) The economy made a strong start to the year, but that was largely due to temporary factors that will soon fade. With spare capacity emerging, particularly in the labour market, downward progress on... 2nd April 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Inflation pressure from labour market continues to fade The February JOLTS data suggest that labour market conditions are now easing at a more gradual pace, but that isn’t a surprise when most indicators of slack have already returned to pre-pandemic norms... 2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs continue to suggest global industry is recovering March’s manufacturing PMIs provided further evidence that global industry is past the worst. And although higher industrial output has caused price pressures to increase in some advanced economies, it... 2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Feb. 2024) February’s money and credit figures show the dip in mortgage rates at the start of the year boosted mortgage approvals to a 17-month high. This is unlikely to continue in the near term. But if we’re... 2nd April 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) Australian house prices continued to pare their gains last month. And a further loss of momentum appears likely in the near term, especially given that the RBA is unlikely to come to the housing... 2nd April 2024 · 3 mins read
