US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to rebound We forecast a healthier 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August, alongside a small fall in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. Wage growth should remain at 3.6%. Together, that would be consistent with... 29th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Another meeting, another 25bp cut The dovish communication following the last meeting and the encouraging July CPI report leave little doubt that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates again next week. A 25bp cut, to 4.25%... 28th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Jul. 2024) 28th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Banking on a soft landing It’s perhaps surprising that financials have outperformed the S&P 500 during the recent bout of market turbulence. (See Chart 1.) After all, Treasury yields have fallen and the outlook for the US... 27th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Updated fair value analysis means a lower peak for yields Our fair value analysis suggests that appraisal-based NOI yields need to rise by 50-60 bps from Q2 levels. But downgrades to our expectations for Treasury yields in the latter years of our forecast... 27th August 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jun. 2024) The muted 0.2% rise in the national Case-Shiller house price index in June was no shock considering that buyer demand collapsed that month, while supply kept growing. With the spring selling season... 27th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Producer price inflation set to slow further The persistent strength in producer price inflation probably still mostly reflects the lagged influence of the surge in import costs rather than any pick-up in wage growth. If the yen keeps... 27th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer... 26th August 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly 25bp or 50bp? The dovish speech from Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium suggests that the Fed will be choosing between a 25bp and a 50bp cut at its meeting in September. A 50bp cut would look less... 23rd August 2024 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (Jul. 2024) The surge in new home sales in July was driven by pent-up buyers taking advantage of the sharp drop in borrowing costs last month, after having been sidelined earlier this year by high mortgage rates... 23rd August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tone at Jackson Hole today and pledge to do “everything we can to support a strong labour market” implies that a 50 bp cut could be on the table at the September... 23rd August 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly July CPI cements the case for another 25 bp cut The muted gains in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in July make another interest rate cut at the September meeting seem inevitable. The Bank will be encouraged by the second soft... 23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation to stay above the 2% target for longer The 10% rise in the Ofgem utility price cap due to take effect on 1st October means that we now expect CPI inflation to rebound from 2.2% in July to 2.9% in November and not fall below 2.0% until June... 23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Jun. 2024) Despite the 0.1% m/m gain in June, retail sales volumes contracted last quarter, suggesting that household consumption growth also slowed. Prospects for the third quarter look better, with the... 23rd August 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Too early to declare end of tightening cycle Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s view that financial markets remain unstable suggests that the Bank may not raise rates as soon as October as we’re anticipating. However, Ueda reiterated that the Bank... 23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will look past buoyant public demand We are resending this publication because we have adjusted our forecast for the monthly CPI indicator due next week. The minutes of the RBA's August meeting revealed that the Bank remains concerned... 23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read
