US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to slow The fading of weather-related support and broader evidence of easing labour demand lead us to expect a smaller 200,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in April. We expect the unemployment rate to be... 25th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Looser labour market may reduce foreign-born employment Foreign-born workers have been entirely responsible for the post-pandemic recovery in employment. But a gradual rise in labour market participation and a moderation in net migration may mean the share... 25th April 2024 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Update What later Fed rate cuts mean for the housing market A later start to Fed rate cuts than we anticipated will push the fall in mortgage rates and recovery in activity into the second half of the year. But as we think that the Fed Funds rate will... 25th April 2024 · 3 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack London Housing Chart Pack (Q2 2024) House price growth in London remains negative according to the ONS, but timelier measures of house prices and sentiment suggest that activity has picked up and prices are regaining momentum. The... 25th April 2024 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Cuts delayed rather than cancelled The recent run of stronger inflation and activity data has unsurprisingly shaken the Fed’s confidence that inflation is on track to return to the 2% target. In that environment, we expect the May FOMC... 24th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (April 2024) The rise in the German Ifo in April, together with the jump in the Composite PMI in the same month, suggests that the German economy may be past the worst. But, unlike the PMI, the Ifo remained in... 24th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. (Please ignore the previous email which linked to the February Chart Pack) The latest activity data... 24th April 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1 2024) With price pressures proving inordinately resilient, there is little scope for the Reserve Bank of Australia to start loosening policy in the near future. 24th April 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update All signs still point to lower shelter inflation Although the BLS’s new tenant rent index has overstated the speed of the slowdown in shelter inflation, the leading indicators remain unanimous in their message that the slowdown is still coming. 23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Permanent online shift is mixed news for retail The latest e-commerce statistics suggest that the pandemic has left US online sales on a permanently higher trend. That will be bad news for retail rents generally, though the detailed data also hint... 23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily European corporate bond yields could fall further We expect corporate bond yields in the UK and euro-zone to fall as rate cuts in those economies push down risk-free rates and strong risk sentiment narrows spreads further. 23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to rebound in activity in most DMs in Q2 The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth picked up in most advanced economies at the start of Q2. But stronger services activity risks keeping price pressures elevated in some DMs. 23rd April 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Mar. 2024) The large uptick in new home sales in March is consistent with our above-consensus prediction that sales of new homes will climb to 750,000 by year end. 23rd April 2024 · 2 mins read
