Global Economics Update US vs. European inflation differences overstated On the face of it, core disinflation seems to have stalled or even reversed in the US but not in Europe, suggesting that Fed cuts will come much later than those by the ECB and BoE. However, there are... 18th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Mar. 24) The modest rise in unemployment last month doesn’t change the bigger picture that Australia’s labour market is firing on all cylinders. That being the case, the RBA will be in no rush to pivot to... 18th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is Belgium’s public debt a cause for concern? We think it is most likely that future governments bring down Belgium’s budget deficit sufficiently to put its debt on a sustainable trajectory. However, the risks are that the deficit is higher than... 17th April 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024) The smaller-than-expected fall in CPI inflation from 3.4% in February to 3.2% in March (BoE and consensus 3.1%, CE 3.0%) and drop in the core rate from 4.5% to 4.2% (consensus and CE 4.1%) raises the... 17th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 2024) Although the Q1 CPI print was a touch stronger than we had predicted, we still expect inflation to return to the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band by Q3. However, given uncertainties around the inflation... 16th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Freeland spends what she can in Budget 2024 Although Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland stuck to her previous pledge to keep the budget deficit below $40bn in the new fiscal year, she nonetheless spent the small windfall afforded to the... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Rise in job vacancies a bigger worry than fall in employment As the plunge in employment in Q1 is probably a response to the recession last year, employment will probably soon rebound now that the economy is growing again. The real risk is a rebound in job... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Apr. 2024) The government’s policies to boost affordability for first-time buyers will have only a modest impact on demand, but they still add to our sense that house prices will rise in the coming years. While... 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Mar. 2024) Housing starts weren’t able to build on the strong performance of the previous month in March, falling by the largest monthly amount since April 2020 in the early days of the pandemic. Although some... 16th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024) The March CPI data showed the third consecutive month of muted gains in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core inflation measures, suggesting that there is a growing chance of the Bank cutting interest... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Swiss economy not as strong as first meets the eye The resilience of Swiss GDP over the past two years has been largely due to the merchanting sector, which buys and sells goods without them ever entering Switzerland. Excluding that sector, the... 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Feb. 2024) The sharp fall in employment and the jump in the unemployment rate in February suggest that wage growth will continue to slow even though the pace of decline appears to have eased. As long as that’s... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update The risks to inflation posed by energy prices Our analysis shows that for CPI inflation to get stuck above 2.0% it would require oil prices and UK wholesale gas prices to rise to $110 per barrel and 150 pence per therm respectively. And for CPI... 15th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales (Feb. 2024) 15th April 2024 · 2 mins read
