US Economics Weekly Activity data not yet a cause for concern We don’t think that the below-potential GDP growth implied by the recent activity data is a cause for concern yet, particularly while the labour market appears healthy. That will keep the Fed squarely... 7th June 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The disconnect between the tax and spending plans While both the Conservatives and the Labour Party have been talking a good game on tax, there is a big disconnect between their desire to keep tax low and their plans to increase spending. In a... 7th June 2024 · 9 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (May 2024) The further rise in the unemployment rate in May shows that the labour market continues to loosen, but the surprising pick-up in wage growth still provides reason to be cautious about the idea that... 7th June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (May) The bigger-than-expected 272,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May will soothe recent fears that the bottom had suddenly dropped out of the economy. With average hourly earnings increasing by 0.4% m/m... 7th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Virtuous cycle will go into reverse next year The jump in wage growth in April provides tentative evidence that the strong pay results agreed in this year's spring wage negotiations are starting to filter through and we expect regular earnings... 7th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly National accounts on balance dovish The upward revisions to consumption mean that household spending has more momentum than previously thought and raise the risk that households will spend most of the income tax cuts due on 1 st July... 7th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Why are shipping costs surging again? Container shipping costs have rebounded in the past month amid a pick-up in demand for goods from China and a possible front-loading of festive orders due to concerns about future shipping disruptions... 6th June 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus Interest rate cuts won’t reduce mortgage costs much Just as fixed mortgage rates have shielded homeowners from rising interest rates, they will prevent households’ interest costs from falling rapidly when interest rates are cut. While borrowers on... 6th June 2024 · 14 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Apr. 2024) The April trade data suggest that net trade is on track to weigh on GDP growth again this quarter, but that is primarily due to continued strength in imports, which paints a better picture of domestic... 6th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Window for policy tightening starting to close While there’s a chance that the Bank of Japan may reduce its bond purchases at the upcoming meeting, we think it will wait until its July meeting before making that announcement. We also expect the... 6th June 2024 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada set to cut again in July Today’s interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada will be the first of many, and the dovish tone of the accompanying communications suggests another rate cut in July is nailed on. As Governor Tiff... 5th June 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (May 2024) The rise in the ISM services index to 53.8 in May, from 49.4, meant that the weighted ISM index rebounded last month, despite a decline in the manufacturing index. That still leaves it consistent with... 5th June 2024 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update How much office space will be needed by 2030? Our 2020 analysis of the impact of changed working patterns on office demand correctly estimated the share of fully remote work, but underpredicted the extent of hybrid work. Yet with office job... 5th June 2024 · 5 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to stand pat With no prospect of the Fed adjusting policy next week, the focus of the FOMC meeting will be the new SEP forecasts. The “dots” are likely to cluster around one or two interest rate cuts this year... 5th June 2024 · 8 mins read
