US Employment Report Preview

Labour demand to moderate

We expect a 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in June. The unemployment rate probably edged back down to 3.9%, while we expect a renewed slowdown in wage growth.

27th June 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Update

How much fiscal ‘headroom’ will the next government have?

If the polls are correct and Labour wins the election, the policies it implements and when it implements them will depend in part on the ‘headroom’ against the fiscal rules it is given by the Office...

27th June 2024 · 6 mins read

US Rapid Response

Durable Goods Orders & Advance Economic Indicators (May 2024)

The small fall in core orders and larger fall in underlying capital goods shipments leaves prospects for second quarter business equipment investment weaker than we had expected.

27th June 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Markets Chart Pack

UK Markets Chart Pack (Jun. 2024)

The stability of UK financial markets ahead of the UK general election is striking when compared to the sharp moves in French asset prices ahead of the French legislative elections. It’s probably...

27th June 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Rapid Response

Riksbank Policy Announcement (June 2024)

The Riksbank’s decision to leave rates unchanged was as expected and does not suggest that policymakers are regretting their decision to cut in May. Instead, today’s statement says that they want to...

27th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Falling vacancies starting to lift unemployment

While the labour market held up initially as job vacancies started to fall, fewer job openings are now pushing up the unemployment rate in earnest and we expect it to rise from 4% now to 5% by 2026.

27th June 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US New Home Sales (May 2024)

The 11.3% m/m decline in new home sales in May will steal all the headlines, but it largely reflected a significant upward revision to the April sales number, leaving us somewhat confused at the...

26th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Global Markets Outlook – Where next for equities, bonds and FX?

1720533600

Will hype around AI continue to fuel a US stock market rally? How are elections and monetary policy shaping the path for bond yields?

Canada Economic Outlook

Lower rates to drive stronger GDP growth next year

Below potential GDP growth and falling core inflation will persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further, with the policy rate settling at 2.5% next year. Lower interest rates should, in...

26th June 2024 · 14 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

RBA won’t cut interest rates until mid-2025

Activity has slowed to a standstill in both countries. Although output growth should gather momentum going forward, it will remain below its pre-pandemic average. However, with underlying inflation...

26th June 2024 · 20 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (May 24)

26th June 2024 · 2 mins read

US Economic Outlook

Consumers beginning to feel the pinch

We expect core inflation to be back to the 2% target by early next year, allowing the Fed to begin cutting interest rates from this September. GDP growth will remain a little lacklustre this year but...

25th June 2024 · 16 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Strong US dollar to weigh on hotel recovery; West to trail

After a strong recovery post-pandemic, momentum in hotel revenue growth is likely to remain subdued over the next few years. With a stronger US dollar hindering the revival of the tourist industry, we...

25th June 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Apr. 2024)

The second consecutive moderate 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in April could be a sign that the increase in home listings this year has cooled the market. We think rising supply will eventually be...

25th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Consumer Prices (May 2024)

The stronger monthly gains in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in May will give the Bank some cause for concern after starting its loosening cycle in June. However, with some of that...

25th June 2024 · 3 mins read