Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer spending has further to run. With the Bank of Japan sounding more upbeat at their October meeting and...

12th November 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Labour Market (Sep. 2024)

Even though the rise in pay growth in September will probably be followed by a bigger gain in October, as the new 5-6% public sector pay deals start, the easing in private sector regular pay growth...

12th November 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2024)

The sharp decline in the 10-year Treasury yield in Q3 meant marked improvement in our property valuation scores. That left all-property looking “fairly valued” for the first time since the end of 2021...

11th November 2024 · 1 min read

Canada Economics Weekly

Trump win creates headache for Bank of Canada

This week's labour market data and Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada's October policy meeting were both overshadowed by Trump's win in the US election given its potential impact on the...

8th November 2024 · 5 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Will Trump be good or bad for the economy?

The market reaction to Donald Trump’s election victory suggests that, with the Republicans closing in on a clean sweep of Congress too, his return to the White House will be a net positive for the...

8th November 2024 · 7 mins read

US Rapid Response

Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov. 2024)

The rise in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, despite uncertainty ahead of the US election, shows that economic developments remain the key driver of confidence in the aggregate...

8th November 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economics Weekly

Our new forecasts after the Budget and the US election

We’ve revised up our forecasts for UK GDP growth, inflation and interest rates in response to the policies in the Budget. We have not changed our UK forecasts based on the results of the US election...

8th November 2024 · 8 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Labour Force Survey (Oct. 2024)

The muted rise in employment in October was even weaker than it seems, as, like in September, it was propped up by strong gains in youth employment. While the unchanged unemployment rate will reassure...

8th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Weak yen strengthens case for year-end rate hike

The policies proposed by Donald Trump may well end up providing a small net boost to Japan’s economy. While higher tariffs will result in a small fall in export volumes, it now seems likely that the...

8th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Australia will be fairly insulated from Trump 2.0

The RBA left rates unchanged on Tuesday, while maintaining a broadly neutral stance. However, the Bank’s meeting was quickly overshadowed by the US election and the prospect of a second Trump...

8th November 2024 · 6 mins read

US Economics Update

Fed slows pace of rate cuts; independence probably safe

As expected, after a run of stronger activity and inflation data since it started its rate cutting cycle with a 50bp reduction in mid-September, the Fed opted for a more modest 25bp cut at the...

7th November 2024 · 3 mins read

US Rapid Response

Fed Policy Announcement (Nov.)

As expected, after a run of stronger activity and inflation data since it started its rate cutting cycle with a 50bp reduction in mid-September, the Fed opted for a more modest 25bp cut at the...

7th November 2024 · 1 min read

Global Markets Update

New market forecasts ahead of a new Trump presidency

We have revised some of our key market forecasts in response to Donald Trump’s victory and the news that the Republicans are on course to regain full control of Congress. These include higher...

7th November 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Update

Budget means Bank of England won’t cut rates as fast and as far

While cutting interest rates from 5.00% to 4.75% today, the Bank of England implied that the Budget means rates will continue to fall only gradually. We agree and due to the Budget (and not the US...

7th November 2024 · 3 mins read

US Rapid Response

Productivity & ULC (Q3)

The BLS finally incorporated the upward revisions to its labour compensation estimates into the productivity and unit labour costs data, and the results are likely to trigger some inflation anxiety...

7th November 2024 · 1 min read