US Rapid Response Employment Cost Index (Q1) The persistence of wage growth is another reason for the Fed to take its time on rate cuts. According to the first-quarter employment cost index, civilian wages increased at a 1.1% non-annualised pace... 30th April 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Mar. 2024) March’s money and credit figures provide further evidence that the drag from high interest rates is starting to fade, which supports our view that activity rebounded in Q1. And our forecast for... 30th April 2024 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to hike in May, no rate cuts until 2025 We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike rates by 25bp at its meeting next week, in contrast to the consensus view that the Bank will remain on hold. Given the RBA’s ostensible resolve to... 30th April 2024 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Mar. 2024) The weakness in retail sales last month suggests that sales volumes fell across Q1 as a whole. However, with households’ real incomes staging a recovery, consumer spending should pick up over the... 30th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: How the Bank of England will respond to UK inflation’s rapid retreat 1715263200 Despite global panic about the DM inflation outlook, we still think that price pressures in the UK are set to fade faster than most assume, opening the way for the Bank of Eng
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think the Fed and most other developed markets (DM) central banks will be able to ease... 29th April 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump, the Fed, and the dollar Most of the major policy initiatives being suggested by Donald Trump’s campaign would be inflationary; whether it’s narrowing the trade deficit via tariffs or a dollar devaluation, curbing immigration... 29th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus Why is productivity so weak outside the US? Productivity growth in most advanced economies has been much weaker than that in the US since the pandemic. This partly reflects the relative weakness of demand, coupled with a degree of labour... 29th April 2024 · 17 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Markets overdo higher for longer narrative While expectations for interest rate cuts in the UK have been pared back in recent months amid growing inflation concerns in the US, we think the markets have gone too far in concluding that UK... 29th April 2024 · 10 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey & Germany State CPI (April 2024) The weaker-than-expected EC business and consumer survey for Ap ril is a reminder that the euro-zone economy is still weak. Meanwhile, the survey and inflation figures for Germany and Spain confirm... 29th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Case for FX intervention less compelling than in 2022 The Ministry of Finance may have intervened earlier today by selling FX reserves to halt the sharp fall of the yen. However, the economic case for foreign exchange intervention is much weaker now than... 29th April 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Q1 NPI shows more pain to come While the headline of the Q1 NCREIF NPI data (-0.9% q/q total return) suggests we could be near the end of the price falls, we think this simply stored up bigger falls for the rest of the year. The... 26th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Higher yields no insurmountable obstacle for the NASDAQ The NASDAQ 100 has shrugged off this week’s surge in real US Treasury yields amid a mixed bag of earnings reports from some of the ‘Magnificent 7’. (See Chart 1.) This suggests to us that the earlier... 26th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Data favour the doves The latest Summary of Deliberations showed division among the Governing Council about when it will be appropriate to cut interest rates. The data released since the April meeting favour the doves... 26th April 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Have soft landing hopes been dashed? The slowdown in first-quarter GDP growth to 1.6% annualised, from 3.4%, was more marked than expected, but it was principally due to a bigger drag from the net exports and inventories categories. With... 26th April 2024 · 7 mins read