US Economics Weekly Fundamentals point to slower wage growth Fed Chair Jerome Powell argued in his post-FOMC press conference this week that, despite the stickiness of inflation in recent months, additional interest rate hikes were still “unlikely”. We still... 3rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Employment Report provides some cheer for markets Today’s favourable reaction in the US stock market to April's softer-than-expected Employment Report has coincided with renewed hopes of interest rate cuts, judging by the initial plunge in the 2-year... 3rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Apr. 2024) The fall in the ISM services index to 49.4 in April, from 51.4 in March, suggests that services spending could slow from the 4% annualised in the first quarter. The prices paid index rebounded but... 3rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Apr.) April’s employment report was weaker across the board; with employment growth slowing back to the pace from last fall, the unemployment rate ticking up to 3.9% and average hourly earnings growth... 3rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly OECD too gloomy, rebound in job vacancies fleeting Our forecast that CPI inflation will fall further than most expect explains why we think the OECD’s recent take on the UK economy is too gloomy. And while the recent rebound in job vacancies could... 3rd May 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank still in hawkish mood Inflation in Norway has been falling faster than Norges Bank expected for some time, but with the core rate still a long way above target, today’s communications show that policymakers are not... 3rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ may keep hiking even if inflation target isn’t met Even though the economic case for preventing the yen from sliding is much weaker, the Ministry of Finance seems to have responded with an even more forceful round of foreign exchange interventions... 3rd May 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Central banks won’t breathe easy just yet New Zealand's labour market was in worse shape last quarter than most had anticipated. What's more, with the economy clearly struggling, labour market slack is likely to rise further. However, with... 3rd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show recovery in global industry still an EM story The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industry continued to recover at the start of Q2, but that this was entirely due to higher output in emerging markets, while activity remained much... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Risks to Swiss inflation skewed to the downside Many central banks are concerned about the fact that services inflation has remained too high. But we think the risks in Switzerland are skewed to the downside and, in our view, outweigh the upside... 2nd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Can the BoC risk diverging from the Fed? Our forecast that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates earlier and more aggressively than the Federal Reserve means that the loonie is likely to depreciate, but we doubt the move will be large... 2nd May 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update San Francisco the poster child for the donut effect With downtowns generally suffering most from the growth in remote work, the hardest-hit cities such as San Francisco are now seeing this impact other revenue streams too, not least tourism. While... 2nd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Surveys point to weakness in construction to come Euro-zone construction output picked up at the beginning of this year but we don’t think this was the beginning of a sustained rebound. Surveys suggest that output will decline in the next few months... 2nd May 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response International Trade (Mar.) & Productivity (Q1) The trade deficit narrowed slightly in March to $69.4bn, from $69.5bn, with exports down by 2.0% m/m and imports falling by 1.6%. The $5.1bn decline in goods exports included a $1.2bn drop in civilian... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Weighing up the relative prospects for cyclicals and defensives We envisage cyclical sectors generally continuing to outperform defensive ones in the S&P 500 through the end of 2025. That reflects our view about the economic outlook; our expectation that hype... 2nd May 2024 · 5 mins read