UK Housing Market Update

Are there enough workers to build 300,000 homes a year?

Even if the government’s easing of planning rules were to mean that at least 300,000 new home approvals in England were granted a year, the number of construction workers would need to rise...

26th November 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Sep. 2024)

The second consecutive moderate 0.3% rise in house prices in September reflects the market picking up momentum over the summer as mortgage rates fell. However, timelier indicators, like the sales-to...

26th November 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Chart Pack

US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 24)

All-property values are down 18% from their mid-2022 peaks. And with appraisal-based cap rates still set to tick higher, we expect further small falls in values. That should take the peak-to-trough...

25th November 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Update

Where are the residential construction layoffs?

Residential construction employment has been performing much better than the slump in construction over the past year might have implied. We suspect that is because job losses in the new home...

25th November 2024 · 3 mins read

US Economics Update

It's Trump's world, his cabinet just live in it

Given the considerable uncertainty surrounding what policies president-elect Donald Trump will enact during his second term, there is a temptation to read a lot into his Cabinet nominations, but we...

25th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs point to weaker growth in most DMs

The latest flash PMIs suggest that while industry continues to struggle across advanced economies, services activity is now slowing in Europe too. While reduced political uncertainty seems to have...

22nd November 2024 · 2 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Deregulation unlikely to be a game changer

We remain sceptical that deregulation will provide a disinflationary boost to the economy’s supply side and we suspect that any reduction in government spending or headcount would turn out to be...

22nd November 2024 · 7 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Will weak activity prompt the BoE to cut rates faster?

While the rebound in CPI inflation in October strengthens the case for caution at the Bank of England, the worrying news on activity recently may mean some Monetary Policy Committee members reconsider...

22nd November 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Retail Sales (Sep. 2024)

The strong increase in retail sales volumes in September confirms that they grew by around 5% annualised last quarter, suggesting that household consumption growth picked up strongly. The October...

22nd November 2024 · 2 mins read

Climate Economics Update

What have we learnt about Trump’s climate policy?

Unsurprisingly, a second Trump presidency will support oil and gas production while rolling back environmental regulations. The fate of the Inflation Reduction Act is less certain, given that the...

22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Nov. 2024)

At face value, the fall in the composite PMI from 51.8 in October to 49.9 in November suggests that real GDP growth is contracting in the middle of Q4, following a muted expansion of 0.1% q/q in Q3...

22nd November 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Retail Sales (Oct. 2024)

The bigger-than-expected 0.7% m/m fall in retail sales in October (consensus forecast -0.3% m/m) suggests that households’ concerns about tax rises announced in the Budget on 30th October contributed...

22nd November 2024 · 3 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Upcoming Shunto will result in bigger pay hikes

The stars are aligning for our long-held view that the Bank of Japan will hike rates again by year-end. And with a recent survey of Japanese firms pointing to even bigger pay hikes in next year's...

22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Stillborn student cap adds to inflationary pressure

The government's planned caps on foreign students won't see the light of the day because the Senate won't approve them. While foreign student commencement will still fall over the coming year, the...

22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Consumer Prices (Oct. 24)

The slowdown in headline inflation in October was due to base effects from utilities prices. With underlying inflation climbing further above the Bank’s 2% target, the case for another rate hike next...

21st November 2024 · 2 mins read