Capital Daily Four points on rotation A recent surge in the Russell 2000 after the US CPI report for June was published last week has prompted claims that we are entering the initial stage of a secular rotation into US small-cap stocks... 17th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (June 2024) While the widening of the trade deficit in June points to a sizeable drag from net exports on Q2 GDP growth, activity should still have rebounded last quarter. 17th July 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Jun.) The rise in manufacturing output in June was better than we expected based on the small fall in hours worked, but it owed a lot to a rebound in motor vehicle production, which seems unlikely to be... 17th July 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Jun. 2024) The rise in housing starts and building permits in June is not as good as it seems at first glance, as it was driven by gains in the volatile multi-family sector, which we think will prove temporary... 17th July 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024) CPI inflation stayed in line with the 2.0% target in June – exactly where the Bank of England thought it would be (consensus and CE forecasts 1.9%) – but the composition of inflation remains a problem... 17th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2 2024) Today’s CPI release confirms that inflation is all but certain to return to the RBNZ’s 1-3% target by Q3. In the context of an extremely weak economy and a rapidly loosening labour market, there is a... 16th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Jul. 2024) Further interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada should breathe some life into the housing market in the coming months, but the dimmer outlook for rent growth and apartment prices present downside... 16th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update UN projections point to slower global population growth The downward revisions to global population growth in the UN’s latest projections won’t have a major bearing on our long-term GDP growth forecasts. That’s because a lot of the revision was driven by... 16th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Flight to more affordable South set to continue Many households have left western metros in favor of those in the South over the past two years. With remote working looking like a permanent fixture of office-based jobs and affordability... 16th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Market still tight, but slowly moving towards balance We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, but not by enough to fully offset the effects of mortgage rate ‘lock-in’. As a result, although we expect existing home sales to rebound, we forecast that... 16th July 2024 · 15 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024) The Bank of Canada’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median measures of core prices rose at an above-target monthly pace for the second month running in June. Nonetheless, with the Bank’s Business Outlook... 16th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (June) Although retail sales were unchanged in June, the strong 0.9% m/m rise in control group sales should ease concerns about the plight of the consumer in the wake of the renewed slump in sentiment... 16th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank surveys show need for looser policy The Bank of Canada’s business and consumer surveys point to weak GDP growth, show that firms’ wage expectations are now lower than their pre-pandemic peak, and suggest that consumers are increasingly... 15th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Manufacturing Sales (May 2024) The continued rise in manufacturing sales and new orders suggests that the sector gained some momentum in the second quarter. However, we expect that strength to fade this quarter. 15th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (July 2024) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data point to some divergence in GDP growth in major economies in Q2. On the... 15th July 2024 · 0 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Jul 2024) The latest data indicate that capacity pressures have continued to ease, a trend that should continue over the coming quarters. However, it will be a while before policymakers can be confident that... 15th July 2024 · 1 min read
