Global Economics Update Financial conditions loosening, but still restrictive Financial conditions have loosened somewhat in advanced economies this year, suggesting that the peak drag from monetary tightening is behind us. However, outside Japan, they remain tight by past... 16th May 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Focus Inflation may soon be too low Our forecast that CPI inflation will fall from 3.2% in March to below 2.0% in April and below 1.0% later this year would leave inflation much lower than the Bank of England and the consensus forecasts... 16th May 2024 · 28 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Apr.) The 0.3% m/m decline in manufacturing output in April , together with the downward revision to the March gain, from 0.5% to 0.2%, continues the run of weaker activity data and will further solidify... 16th May 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Apr. 2024) The modest rebound in housing starts in April confirmed that the slump the month before was a weather-related blip. But the recovery wasn’t as strong as we had anticipated, which potentially casts... 16th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Apr. 2024) 16th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan GDP (Q1 2024) The renewed drop in GDP in the first quarter mostly reflects production shutdowns at major carmakers and a pronounced rebound this quarter is very likely. And with services spending rebounding, the... 16th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (May 2024) The April housing market data show that the spring season is shaping up to be vastly different than last year, with sales dropping back despite higher listings and house prices unchanged. This has... 15th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data suggest that activity in Europe picked up at the start of this year, and... 15th May 2024 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Apr. 2024) We would caution against jumping to the conclusion that consumers are starting to crack under high interest rates, despite the disappointing retail sales data for April, as some payback always seemed... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The slightly more modest 0.3% m/m increase in core CPI in April was even better than it looked, particularly given that we already know the PPI components that feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (April) The small increase in the Riksbank’s target CPIF measure of inflation, which excludes the effect of changes in interest rates, from 2.2% in March to 2.3% in April, was broadly as expected (consensus 2... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Chalmers’ fight against inflation goes nowhere Treasurer Jim Chalmers has sought to present the 2024/25 Budget as one that strikes a balance between providing support to an ailing economy and keeping pressure off inflation. In our view, that’s... 15th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of renewed interest in ‘meme’ stocks Even if interest in ‘meme’ stocks rebounds following a renewed surge in GameStop’s share price, some of the telltale signs that a bubble in the broader stock market may be entering its final stages –... 14th May 2024 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Mortgage rates climbed back above 7% last month but we think that trend will soon reverse, with rates falling to 6.5% by year-end. Lower borrowing costs will draw more mortgaged buyers into the market... 14th May 2024 · 1 min read
Event UK Drop-In: April CPI and the Bank of England’s path to rate cuts 1716366600 We think the Bank of England will decide to start cutting rates at its next meeting, but there’s a series of crucial data releases between now and that policy decision on 20th