US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (Nov. 2024) The fall in the ISM services index to 52.1 in November is not too concerning, given it was driven partly by a slump in the supplier deliveries index, but it does lend some support to our view that GDP... 4th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Nov. 2024) The rebound in purchase mortgage applications in November shows that there were some signs of life in the market, despite the return of 7% mortgage rates. But taking a step back, activity remains... 4th December 2024 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will wait until May before cutting rates The RBA will leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting on 10 th December. While the weakness in economic activity points to rate cuts before long, we think the Bank will need to see... 4th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q3 2024) GDP growth remained sluggish in the third quarter, adding to the case for the RBA to start easing policy before long. 4th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS shows labour market finding a floor The rebound in job openings in October suggests that labour market conditions are stabilising at a healthy level. Meanwhile, despite a small rebound in the private quits rate, it still points to wage... 3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Post-pandemic student housing rebound to be short-lived Tight supply conditions will drive a solid rent outlook for the student housing sector over the next year. But the bigger picture remains one of slowing demand as steady declines in the college-age... 3rd December 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Focus Will Trump get his new tax cuts? Although the Republicans completed a clean sweep in the recent election, we are sceptical that this opens the door to additional fiscal stimulus. We do expect the original Trump tax cuts, which are... 3rd December 2024 · 9 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will hike rates to 1.25% by end-2026 We now expect inflation excluding fresh food and energy to remain above the Bank of Japan’s target for most of next year as the yen remains weak for longer and the upcoming spring wage negotiations... 3rd December 2024 · 18 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: Is France’s political crisis the next euro-zone debt crisis? 1733238000 The French government is on the brink of collapse, the country’s fiscal situation continues to deteriorate and its bonds are trading like their Greek counterparts.
Event Europe Drop-In: The slow agony of Germany’s auto industry 1733929200 What’s the outlook for struggling German auto manufacturers? How big a threat do Donald Trump and Chinese imports present?
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 24) Conditions for would-be homebuyers and sellers will not improve much in the near term, with mortgage rates set to remain around 7% through the first half of next year, before modest relief arrives... 2nd December 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global industry in the doldrums even with China boost The latest PMIs show that while China’s manufacturing sector is benefiting from a fiscal boost, industry in most of the rest of the world continues to struggle. With demand weak and little disruption... 2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Nov. 2024) November’s surprisingly large rise in the Nationwide house price index suggests the housing market is picking up momentum despite recent rises in mortgage rates. With housing affordability still... 2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Stretched affordability bodes poorly for housing cycle Although Australian house prices edged up a notch in November, we remain sceptical about prospects for a second wind in the housing cycle. Given that the RBA is unlikely to provide interest-rate... 2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Oct. 24) 2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Economy losing momentum, but public sector will help The recent news on activity is probably overstating the weakness of the economy as it is not adequately capturing the increases in government spending and public investment. Even so, it does appear as... 29th November 2024 · 4 mins read
