Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What to make of May’s plunge in household spending The Monthly Household Spending Indicator is often revised several months later so the plunge in spending in May won’t deter the Reserve Bank of Australia from hiking rates next month if inflation... 8th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Weakness boosts odds of another rate cut There was little to be encouraged by this week, with labour market conditions continuing to soften, the business surveys weak and the real estate board data pointing to a risk of renewed falls in... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump now has clear lead Following Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, which appears to have hit his polling numbers and gone down badly with big donors, there is clearly now a good chance that he drops out of the race... 5th July 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Where are fiscal concerns greatest – the UK, France or US? With the public finances in the UK in decent shape relative to France and the US, and the new UK government committing to greater fiscal discipline, we think investors are right not to worry as much... 5th July 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The key milestones ahead as Starmer enters No. 10 As the dust settles on the election result, there will be a lot of discussion about what comes next. We think Labour may move quickly on its low-cost supply side reforms, such as overhauling planning... 5th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jun. 2024) The modest decline in employment and rise in the unemployment rate to 6.4% in June raise the chance that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates again this month, and makes us more confident in our... 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Jun.) Although the 206,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June beat the consensus at 190,000, this was more broadly a disappointing report when we factor in the 111,000 downward revision to past months and... 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Softening domestic demand will keep RBA from hiking With inflation risks still running high, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been reluctant to drop its tightening bias. However, we still expect the Board to leave rates on hold at its upcoming August... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Jun. 2024) As the first economic data release under a Labour government since 2010, the decline in Halifax house prices in June meant that Labour’s tenure got off to a slightly downbeat start. However, while we... 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Labour wins election: Some upside to GDP, inflation and rates The big shift in the political landscape that has delivered the first Labour government since May 2010 is unlikely to lead to anything like as big a shift in the economic landscape. But at the margin... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Budget deficit set to keep narrowing Our analysis suggests that Japan's budget deficit is narrowing much more quickly than most were anticipating. That underpins our view that the ratio of public debt to GDP should return to pre-virus... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) We expect that a sustained period of below potential growth will help bring core inflation to the 2% target by the end of the year and persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further, with... 4th July 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response Exit Polls: Labour win would create some upside to our GDP, inflation and rate forecasts The big shift in the political landscape that appears to be delivering a Labour government with a large majority is unlikely to lead to anything like as big a shift in the economic landscape. But at... 4th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Trump's lead creates conundrum for our forecasts Following his disastrous debate performance last week, President Joe Biden’s odds of getting re-elected have gone from bad to worse. Former President Donald Trump is now unequivocally the favourite to... 3rd July 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (June 11-12) The minutes of the Fed’s mid-June policy meeting reveal that, not surprisingly given the split in the interest rate projections released at that time, officials were split on the outlook for inflation... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
