US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (July 2024) The recent set of mild inflation data and growing concerns among Fed officials about downside risks to the labour market reinforce our view that the first interest rate cut will come in September. We... 22nd July 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Housing market to surpass expectations in 2025 House prices will probably remain flat for the rest of 2024, but lower mortgage rates will provide scope for prices to beat expectations next year. Indeed, our forecast that Bank Rate will be lowered... 22nd July 2024 · 17 mins read
Event US Drop-In: After Biden – Macro and market risks as the election race takes a twist 1721743200 The dramatic departure of Joe Biden throws fresh uncertainty into the US presidential election race.
US Rapid Response Trump still favourite, as Biden withdraws After his disastrous debate performance, President Joe Biden has dropped out of the race to be re-elected in this November’s election. His withdrawal letter acknowledges Vice President Kamala Harris... 21st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly CPI data just about clear path for another rate cut Despite some measures of monthly core price growth remaining above the rates consistent with 2% inflation, the June CPI release on the whole supported the case for another interest rate cut from the... 19th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Shelter disinflation adds to case for September rate cut We were initially uncertain whether the notable slowdown in shelter inflation in June’s CPI report was the start of the long-awaited easing in housing inflation, but the latest all-tenant rent data... 19th July 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (May 2024) After a brief rebound in April, the renewed fall in retail sales volumes in May suggests that consumption growth is weakening again. We estimate that sales volumes fell by around 1% annualised in the... 19th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Additional semiconductor curbs won’t cripple exports Japan's government seems to have intervened in the foreign exchange markets to strengthen the yen yet again last week and we think that the chances of a sustained rebound in the yen are rising... 19th July 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jun. 2024) June’s disappointing public finances figures suggest that public borrowing is on track to come in a little higher than the OBR’s 2024/25 forecast of £87.2bn. Admittedly, the OBR may grant the... 19th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ now likely to start cutting rates in August Given the recent slate of weak economic data we now expect the RBNZ to start loosening policy in August, rather than in November as we were previously predicting. For one thing, timely activity data... 19th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Distress rising, but still a long way to go With the share of non-performing CMBS loans on the rise, and plenty of loans set to refinance onto a higher rate this year, recent data provide further evidence that distress will rise both this year... 18th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Event ANZ Drop-In: Could Q2 inflation push the RBA to hike again? 1722405600 DM central banks may not be done raising rates – a too-hot Australian Q2 inflation report on 31st July could push the RBA to hike at its meeting
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (May 2024) While the easing in wage growth in May was broadly in line with what the consensus and the Bank of England expected, it probably won’t offset the Bank’s concerns about the stickiness of services... 18th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jun. 2024) Although job growth remained healthy last month, it didn’t prevent the unemployment rate from rising anew. And we suspect the rise in joblessness has much further to run. 18th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank set for another rate cut Despite stronger core price pressures in May and June, the totality of the data is still supportive of another interest rate cut next week. With GDP growth below potential and shelter inflation now... 17th July 2024 · 6 mins read
