UK Commercial Property Update What’s keeping real estate investors awake at night? A vast share of our clients highlighted geopolitics and/or Trump as their biggest blind spots going into 2025 when polled at our recent London roundtables. Meanwhile, a large majority thought that... 9th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Is this a ‘vibecovery’? Recent Bank of Canada communications have been keenly attuned to the downside risks to inflation and economic activity, concerns which seemed justified after last week’s disappointing GDP report... 6th December 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation the last piece of the puzzle for the Fed The data releases this week provided some support for our view that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25bp at its next meeting, rather than pause, although next week's price data will be the deciding... 6th December 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec. 2024) While the headline University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index remains below its average over the first half of the year, the jump in December suggests that household spending growth is likely to... 6th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Nov.) We disagree with the market reaction to November's Labour Force Survey, implying that the jump in the unemployment rate makes a 50bp cut much more likely. A slowdown in immigration will soon act to... 6th December 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Mission impossible to mission plausible By shifting its target from achieving the highest sustained growth rate in the G7 to delivering “higher living standards”, the government has gone from what looks like mission impossible to mission... 6th December 2024 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Nov. 2024) The solid 227,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November was driven partly by the reversal of the disruptions that weighed on hiring in October, but still implies that underlying employment growth was... 6th December 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Nov. 2024) The leap in Halifax house prices in November mirrors the jump in the Nationwide measure and suggests that some relief rally or release of pent-up demand after the Budget has more than offset the... 6th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan: December rate hike still looking more likely than not Conflicting messages by the Bank of Japan have once again left the outcome of the Bank's December meeting wide open, but on balance we're sticking to our forecast of another rate hike in a couple of... 6th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Despite sluggish activity, RBA will only cut in May With Australian Q3 GDP data underperforming expectations, markets now think the RBA could begin its easing cycle as soon as April. To be sure, it is certainly the case that private demand showed few... 6th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (October 24) Base pay rose the most since 1992 in October and we think it will continue to hold strong through to the end of next year 5th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update No holiday cheer for CRE debt Our expectation of rising evidence of distressed assets in 2024 has come to bear, but we think more is still to come over the next couple of years. Some of that will stem from matured loans requiring... 5th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) Lower interest rates are yet to do much to spur the economy, but green shoots are emerging, with the timely activity surveys picking up and the newly-announced mini-fiscal stimulus expected to boost... 5th December 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is strong services spending here to stay? We think that the shift in the shape of consumer spending over the past few years away from spending on goods towards spending on services is here to stay. While the recent strength in spending on... 5th December 2024 · 14 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to revert to a 25bp cut Although the recent GDP data disappointed, there are green shoots emerging, with signs of stabilisation in the labour market and the key business surveys picking up. As core inflation has also... 4th December 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Focus Counting the cost of a crackdown on immigration The incoming Trump administration’s proposed crackdown on immigration means labour force growth is likely to slow toward zero. That would pull down potential GDP growth to less than 2% and labour... 4th December 2024 · 16 mins read
