Long Run Update Will ageing populations drag on productivity? As well as adversely impacting the growth of the workforce, ageing populations may also have a small negative impact on productivity. There is plenty of scope for this to be offset by a positive boost... 29th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (June) The conundrum of low unemployment despite falling job openings continued in June and we expect the labour market to keep treading water over coming months. 29th July 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jun. 2024) June’s money and lending data provided a bit more evidence that the drag from higher activity is starting to fade, which supports our view that the economic recovery may be a bit stronger than most... 29th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden GDP (Q2) Preliminary data released this morning show that the Swedish economy contracted by 0.8% q/q in Q2, more than offsetting the 0.7% increase in Q1. The data were significantly weaker than expected by... 29th July 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada races ahead of the pack The Bank of Canada’s second 25bp interest rate cut, taking the policy rate to 4.50%, was accompanied by a dovish shift in the communications. Our base case is that the Bank will continue to cut rates... 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Upside surprises not enough to prevent September cut The modest upside surprises to GDP and core PCE price growth revealed by the data this week were not enough to change the big picture that the economy has lost momentum this year and the... 26th July 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The risks to inflation from rising shipping costs We think shipping costs would have to rise a lot further before having a significant bearing on consumer price inflation. Even so, the ongoing rise in shipping rates presents yet another upside risk... 26th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (June) Core PCE prices increased by 0.18% m/m in June, largely as expected and, although May's increase was revised up slightly to 0.13%, from 0.08%, that still means inflation has been running at a target... 26th July 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Services inflation slowing but broadening The data released this week on balance increase the risk that the Bank of Japan leaves interest rates unchanged next week. While household disposable income jumped in Q1, that reflected a one-off... 26th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Antipodean central banks to part ways on policy A new survey of businesses shows that New Zealand's retail industry is in dire straits. Given the sizeable contribution of retail trade to employment, the risk is that the labour market will... 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tokyo CPI (July 24) The sharp slowdown in inflation excluding fresh food and energy in Tokyo this month reduces the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates next week, though we’re sticking to our... 26th July 2024 · 3 mins read
BoE Watch It’s close, but BoE to keep rates on hold for a little longer While it will be a very close call, the economy’s recent strength and the stickiness of services inflation leads us to think that the Bank of England will wait until its September meeting to cut... 25th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus We doubt this is the start of a far bigger rotation in US equities We don’t think the recent rotation in US equities sets the stage for something much bigger. In our opinion, another sustained and substantial rotation won’t begin until shortly before the bubble in... 25th July 2024 · 16 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial sentiment worsens in Q2 RICS survey While headline balances saw little movement, digging deeper the Q2 RICS survey shows a reversal of last quarter’s more positive outlook. Indeed, respondents seem more downbeat, with almost half now... 25th July 2024 · 6 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth on a firm downward trend We expect a softer 170,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in July, alongside a more substantial easing in wage growth. 25th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q2 2024) The sharper-than-expected pick-up in second-quarter GDP growth to 2.8% annualised should make the Fed a bit more comfortable about keeping policy unchanged next week, but the recent loosening of... 25th July 2024 · 2 mins read
