Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: RBA and RBNZ to walk different paths Although their recent performance leaves much to be desired, we believe that both Antipodean economies are on the cusp of a cyclical upswing. But while the RBNZ has ample room to support the recovery... 12th December 2024 · 20 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov. 2024) November’s RICS survey provides further evidence that housing activity and prices remained resilient to the rise in mortgage rates in November. And our view that mortgage rates will start to fall... 12th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will lift rates to 1.25% by mid-2026 The outcome of the Bank’s upcoming meeting is highly uncertain but we still think that a 25bp rate hike is more likely than not. And with the yen set to remain weaker for longer and wage growth set to... 12th December 2024 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Nov. 2024) With the labour market still firing on all cylinders, there’s little need for the RBA to rush to loosen policy. Accordingly, we still think the Bank won’t deliver its first rate cut before next May. 12th December 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Three ways the Spending Review could affect fiscal policy With pressures on public spending continuing to grow, this has raised the chances that the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, raises spending further in her 2025 Spending Review. If she raises spending and... 11th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank to revert to 25bp cuts Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by another 50bp today, its communications were more hawkish than might have been expected, with the Bank no longer indicating that further cuts are... 11th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Is a less volatile Treasury market here to stay? The Treasury market has been quite subdued since the US election, including today despite a slightly disconcerting CPI report. We don’t expect it to become a whole lot more volatile in 2025 either... 11th December 2024 · 5 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to continue with gradual policy normalisation We expect the Fed to cut its policy rate by an additional 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting, to between 4.25% and 4.50%, and to continue projecting that the fed funds rate will eventually end up close... 11th December 2024 · 9 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Dec. 2024) Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by another 50bp today, the accompanying communications were more hawkish than might have been expected, with the Bank no longer indicating that further... 11th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Nov) The 0.31% m/m increase in core CPI in November, which left the annual core inflation rate unchanged at 3.3% for a fourth month in a row and pushed the three-month annualised rate up to an eight-month... 11th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Rental growth to pick-up as apartment supply drops off The peak in new apartment supply has passed, with completions set to drop back sharply over the next few years. If demand continues to hold up well as we expect, this should put downward pressure on... 10th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update How far will mortgage interest cost inflation fall? While mortgage interest cost (MIC) inflation has historically turned negative during, or after, loosening cycles, we expect it to remain positive this time and rebound from 2026. This is because, in... 10th December 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Tracking the MPC’s thinking with our Bank of England Caseometer Our new Bank of England Caseometer helps track whether the Bank is becoming more inclined to cut interest rates faster and further or slower and not as far. Our forecast is that rates will continue to... 10th December 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Overseas slowdown won’t derail UK economy Despite the deterioration in the global outlook, we remain optimistic that UK GDP growth will just about beat the consensus forecast over the next couple of years, as lower inflation and bigger falls... 10th December 2024 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will only cut interest rates in May The RBA sounded more dovish today and it’s looking increasingly likely that it will lower interest rates sooner rather than later. While a downside surprise in Q4 inflation could trigger a February... 10th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Dec. 2024) 10th December 2024 · 2 mins read
