Capital Daily We think valuation will prove a tailwind for the yen before long The yen’s latest weakness has pushed its valuation well below our estimates of “fair value”, which suggests to us it is likely to strengthen substantially over the medium term. We are resending this... 18th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q3 2022) The much stronger than expected rise in consumer prices in Q3 will encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike rates by another 50bp at its November meeting and poses upside risks to our view... 17th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Structural change and higher rates still key to sector returns The weaker economic growth outlook will weigh most heavily on the retail and apartment sectors, where we have made the largest downgrades to our rental growth forecasts. But the relatively small size... 14th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack House prices begin to fall A deterioration in the economic outlook and renewed rise in mortgage rates to a 16-year high in September means the housing market is set for a further slowdown. We estimate that mortgage payments as... 14th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Update What still-hot inflation means for US Treasuries Despite the hot September US CPI print from yesterday, we still expect Treasury yields to drop back over time. And we think the drop will mostly be driven by falls in the real yield, rather than... 14th October 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q3 2023) The Q3 credit conditions survey doesn’t capture the impact of the market turmoil of recent weeks, with the deadline for responses falling a week before the “mini-budget”. Nonetheless, it shows rising... 13th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep.) While optimists can still point to limited supply, a fifth consecutive drop in new buyer enquiries in the RICS survey in September has convinced a majority of surveyors that house prices are heading... 13th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Growth downgrades to dent real estate returns in 2023 With a mild recession now built into our forecast, the outlook for commercial real estate performance has worsened. But because this is a relatively small downgrade and it is joined by an expectation... 12th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE’s gilt operations – easy to start, harder to end Given that the surge in gilt yields that has forced the Bank of England to intervene in the market was initially driven by the government’s loose fiscal policies, it makes sense that the Bank may not... 11th October 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Update A full suite of revised UK Housing forecasts Its widely accepted that the jump in mortgage rates from 1.5% last autumn to 6% means that a significant fall in house prices is now inevitable. In this Update we set out how we came to our forecast... 10th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Bigger house price falls loom One result of the rise in near-term interest rate expectations is a deterioration in the outlook for global housing markets. We already expected house price falls in a handful of countries. Now those... 7th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Sep.) The 0.1% monthly fall in the Halifax house price index in September echoed the message from Nationwide earlier this week that house prices have now stalled. Given the sharp rise in mortgage rates over... 7th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Falling rent-frees do not point to an office recovery REIS data show rent-free periods dropped back in the first half of the year, hinting at a tightening market. But with occupiers still rationalising their office portfolios, we expect vacancy to tick... 6th October 2022 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Update House prices to fall by 8% Against a backdrop of higher mortgage rates, a weaker economy and prices falling earlier than expected, we have cut our forecast and now expect a peak-to-trough fall in house prices of 8%, down from... 6th October 2022 · 3 mins read
