US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The 0.5% m/m increase in consumer prices in January suggests that the downward trend in inflation is slowing. But we still expect the disinflationary process to re-accelerate soon, as easing shortages... 14th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q4) Confirmation that euro-zone GDP growth slowed to a crawl in Q4 does not alter our view that the region is now falling into recession. That said, we think the labour market will continue to hold up... 14th February 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Dec./Jan.) December’s labour market data showed that, despite an easing in labour demand, labour market conditions stayed tight and the market continued to support strong wage growth. The Bank of England will be... 14th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q4 2022 Preliminary) Japan’s economy returned to growth in Q4, avoiding a technical recession after the contraction in Q3. With business investment slowing even quicker than we anticipated and a lower savings rate leaving... 14th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Jan.) The expected slowdown in net lending to real estate began to show in January. This was seen across all sectors and the latest Senior Loan Officer survey suggested this will continue, as banks cited a... 13th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Does unemployment need to rise? Central banks need wage growth to slow significantly before they can judge that inflation is firmly under control. The least painful way for this to happen is for the recent rise in “mismatch” between... 13th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Strong employment won’t force the Bank to do more The surge in employment and rise in hours worked in January suggest that economic activity continued to expand at the start of 2023 and present clear upside risks to our forecasts for GDP growth... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar edges higher ahead of US CPI data next week The US dollar is set to end the week a touch stronger against most currencies, adding to its gains last week. But, aside from the Japanese yen round-tripping on news over the next BoJ governor, it’s... 10th February 2023 · 11 mins read
FX Markets Update What a “soft landing” in the US might mean for the greenback Given that US economic outperformance has tended to coincide with a stronger dollar, we suspect a “soft landing” in the US economy would provide a favourable backdrop for the greenback, if it also... 10th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly All eyes on US data next week It was a fairly quiet week in commodities markets, although oil prices rose on concerns about earthquake-related disruption to exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan and Russia’s announcement of a 0... 10th February 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Markets coming round to the Fed’s view on rates Markets have continued to swing round to the Fed’s view that rate cuts are unlikely this year. We still believe that those cuts are coming, however, as economic growth disappoints and core inflation... 10th February 2023 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Slow recovery in sales and further falls in prices Housing market activity is likely to recover only gradually from its current lows, which means we think 2023 will be the weakest year for sales since 2012. Affordability will remain stretched by past... 10th February 2023 · 18 mins read
