BoE Watch Peak is in sight, but we’re not there yet A shift from the 75 basis point hike in interest rates in November to a 50 basis point rise, from 3.00% to 3.50%, at the policy meeting on Thursday 15th December would show that the Monetary Policy... 8th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Moderate recession to drive inflation lower The economy is heading for a moderate recession, as higher interest rates weigh on domestic demand and exports contract amid the global downturn. Weaker demand, together with lower commodity prices... 8th December 2022 · 20 mins read
US Housing Market Update Single-family rental growth set to fall back to earth The single-family rental market has been on a roll since the GFC and the pandemic provided a further boost. Nonetheless, while it may hold up slightly better than multifamily over the next year or so... 8th December 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov.) The RICS survey confirmed that there were widespread house price falls in November. Surveyors expect a further drop in prices and slowdown in transactions ahead, in line with our forecasts. 8th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Oct. 2022) The October trade data point to a huge boost from net trade to Q4 GDP growth but we suspect that a further fall in exports will moderate that contribution. 8th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Oct. 22) 8th December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov.) A fall in mortgage rates from recent 20-year highs helped home purchase applications rise for the first time in eight months in November. However, while we expect mortgage rates to continue to trend... 7th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A tough year 2023 will be a tough year for the economy as the effects of the previous rises in inflation and previous hikes in interest rates (as well as a future rise from 3.00% now to a peak of 4.50% in early... 7th December 2022 · 27 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Oct.) German industrial production once again held up better than expected in October. But this resilience was driven partly by a recovery in construction which tends to be volatile. We still expect high... 7th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Nov.) The largest monthly fall in in the Halifax house price index since October 2008 confirms that the house price correction that we forecast has begun. While mortgage rates have fallen back somewhat in... 7th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Why this might have been another false start for the S&P 500 Although the 10-year Treasury yield has already dropped by roughly 60bp since the release of October’s CPI report on 10th November, we still see scope for it to end 2023 a bit lower than its current... 6th December 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update A tale of two labour markets The better-than-expected 263,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment suggests it’s still the best of times in the labour market but, digging below the surface, there are worrying signs that it could... 6th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The essentially unchanged level of export volumes in October, despite big gains in agricultural and pharmaceutical exports, suggests the sector is struggling amid weaker global demand. With the drop... 6th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuation scores at a turning point Property valuation scores fell further in Q3 as rises in alternative asset yields outweighed the marginal increase in all-property yields, but alternative asset yields have dropped back in Q4 to-date... 6th December 2022 · 6 mins read
