US Economics Update Tighter lending standards point to a weak H1 The surge in interest rates and tightening in credit conditions last year resulted in a broad-based plunge in loan demand in the fourth quarter. Most banks expect to continue tightening standards this... 7th February 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jan.) We suspect that the pause in house price falls in January reported by Halifax will prove temporary. Despite the slight decline in mortgage rates, affordability still looks far too stretched for house... 7th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Feb. 22) 7th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Dec. 2022) The large jump in wage growth in December was mostly due to a surge in volatile bonus payments and it will slow over the coming months. 7th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Dec. 22) 7th February 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What to make of the recent US sector rotation Although the sectors in the S&P 500 that are dominated by US “big-tech” have outperformed the broader market substantially since the start of 2023, we aren’t convinced this will continue. 6th February 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Cash buyers unlikely to prop up housing market Most, but not all measures of house prices show that they are falling. That has led some to contend that cash buyers may be supporting prices. But we think it is just a matter of time before the ONS... 6th February 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jan.) The headline CIPS construction index showed a contraction in activity in January, with the housing index seeing a substantial decline. But the forward-looking indicators improved, with future business... 6th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We still think slow growth will weigh on US equities Despite some good news on the US economy today, we still expect US equities to struggle for a bit as growth slows. 3rd February 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Robust US economic data spark a rebound in the greenback The US dollar looks likely to record its largest weekly rise against other major currencies since its cyclical peak in September of last year. While investors’ dovish interpretations of announcements... 3rd February 2023 · 11 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Pipelines will weigh on Austin, NYC and Seattle offices We expect a further slowing in office completions over the next few years as a combination of factors weigh on the profitability of new projects. But our latest review of the metro-level completion... 3rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly The opposite of stagflation The strength of the early January data appears to rule out the possibility of an imminent recession, but that won’t prevent inflation from continuing to fall sharply from here. 3rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
