US Commercial Property Update Affordability adds downside risk to big 6 apartments We think migration patterns of footloose workers will continue to play the largest role in driving the rental outlook across metros. But rent as a share of income will also have a bearing, weighing on... 9th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Exports set to rebound in March, but outlook still bleak While world trade fell further in February, the available data point to a rise in March, especially due to a strong rebound in China. But that rebound looks to have already reversed in April. And with... 9th May 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Apr.) The small slip in the Halifax House Price index in April bought it a little more in line with the Nationwide figures. But prices remain remarkably resilient to the largest rise in mortgage rates since... 9th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Mar. 2023) Wage growth held steady in March from February, as a further slowdown in regular and overtime pay growth was offset by a decent increase in volatile payments. We still see further scope for wage... 9th May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update SLOOS shows banks tightening credit conditions The recent turmoil in the banking sector doesn’t appear to have triggered a severe further tightening in credit conditions, but since lending standards were already being tightened to a degree only... 8th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We still think Treasury yields and the S&P 500 will fall this year Despite today’s stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report, we continue to think that the 10-year Treasury yield and S&P 500 will fall over the next couple of quarters. 5th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising house prices could delay policy loosening Following the renewed concerns about regional US banks this week, markets are again pricing in interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada later this year. From a domestic perspective, however, the... 5th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian debt sustainability revisited Our central scenario is that Italy’s public debt-to-GDP ratio will decline gradually in the long-run. However, the government will need to maintain sizeable primary budget surpluses to make that... 5th May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed pause may not last for long The April employment report showed that while jobs growth remains solid enough, it is still trending lower and the surveys suggest activity growth is slowing too. With ongoing concerns over regional... 5th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Hikes nearly over, but most of their effect still to come While the hiking cycles of all major central banks will soon be in the rear-view mirror, most of their impact on activity lies on the road ahead. Based on the latest national accounts data, we... 9th May 2023 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The 253,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in April suggests that the labour market remains resilient despite the banking sector turmoil and broader signs of an economic slowdown. That said, the stronger... 5th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) The decline in full-time positions in April means that the large rise in total employment was weaker than it looks. Hours worked only crept up during the LFS reference week and, given the public... 5th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Pound standing to attention for King’s Coronation You’d be forgiven for thinking that the pound has been caught up in the wave of Britishness ahead of the King’s Coronation this weekend. But instead the rise to a 12-month high of $1.26 has been... 5th May 2023 · 8 mins read
