UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The fall in CPI inflation from 10.5% in December to 10.1% in January (consensus and CE forecast: 10.2%, BoE forecast: 10.1%), the drop in the core rate from 6.3% to 5.8% and the easing in services... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack YCC still set to end with Ueda at the helm The government formally nominated Kazuo Ueda as the next Bank of Japan Governor at yesterday’s Diet session. Since the initial announcement of his candidature last Friday, analysts and investors have... 15th February 2023 · 11 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will press ahead with another 75bp hike The incoming data have been a touch softer than the RBNZ had anticipated. While we still expect the Bank to press ahead with the 75bp hike it signalled in November at the upcoming meeting on 22 nd... 15th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Lower inflation looks priced in, but slower growth doesn’t A further decline in US inflation seems largely priced in to financial markets. But we still think investors are too optimistic about how quickly the economy will grow, and as such are sticking with... 14th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Making sense of the strength of employment The surge in employment in January highlights that some sectors are still recovering strongly and raises the prospect that the economy could avoid recession, although we still judge that a modest one... 14th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Stocks, bonds, and inflation compensation Although they seem to have begun to rise again over recent weeks, we think that investors’ inflation expectations in the US are likely to fall back over the coming months. That would help Treasuries... 14th February 2023 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The 0.5% m/m increase in consumer prices in January suggests that the downward trend in inflation is slowing. But we still expect the disinflationary process to re-accelerate soon, as easing shortages... 14th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q4) Confirmation that euro-zone GDP growth slowed to a crawl in Q4 does not alter our view that the region is now falling into recession. That said, we think the labour market will continue to hold up... 14th February 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Dec./Jan.) December’s labour market data showed that, despite an easing in labour demand, labour market conditions stayed tight and the market continued to support strong wage growth. The Bank of England will be... 14th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q4 2022 Preliminary) Japan’s economy returned to growth in Q4, avoiding a technical recession after the contraction in Q3. With business investment slowing even quicker than we anticipated and a lower savings rate leaving... 14th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Jan.) The expected slowdown in net lending to real estate began to show in January. This was seen across all sectors and the latest Senior Loan Officer survey suggested this will continue, as banks cited a... 13th February 2023 · 2 mins read
