Japan Economics Weekly Yield Curve Control set to end in April The Bank of Japan didn’t alter policy settings at today’s meeting. With economic activity set to disappoint the Bank’s overly optimistic forecasts and wage growth slowing again, the case for... 10th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Some lessons for equities from “stop-go” monetary policy The Fed is clearly trying to avoid a premature easing in financial conditions and a repeat of 1970s-style “stop-go” monetary policy. This Update discusses some lessons from that period for equity... 9th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update How King Cash may reign over equities & bonds The US may not have a monarchy, but cash has arguably become its proverbial king of investments. If history is a guide, it is a reign that is likely to feature equities underperforming bonds amid a... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial completions set to fall back from 2024 We expect industrial completions to exceed 3.5% of inventory this year, despite the first quarterly drop in space under construction in Q4 for over two years. But new starts are already slowing and... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Mapping economic reforms for the UK The numerous “plans for growth” that have been announced by the Government, the Opposition, and various commentators in recent months vary in their analytical rigour but all miss one crucial point... 9th March 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Feb.) The slight recovery in the new buyer enquiries balance in February suggested that the reversal of the autumn spike in mortgage rates allowed a limited revival in demand. But with sales volumes falling... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS show drop back in both openings and quits The JOLTS survey showed a drop back in job openings in January, with the timelier job postings data from Indeed pointing to a more marked deterioration in labour market conditions in February. 8th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Risky assets largely shrugging off “higher for longer” Most “risky” assets have taken a knock in the past month. But this mainly seems to reflect an adjustment in valuations to higher “risk-free” rates, rather than growing concerns about tighter policy... 8th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Event Euro-zone Drop-In: ECB March meeting preview 1678788000 With another 50bps rate hike at the European Central Bank’s March meeting looking like a done deal, all eyes will be on how policymakers signal the path ahead for monetary tightening.
US Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The widening in the international trade deficit to $68.3bn in January, from $67.2bn, included big rebounds in both imports and exports which, at face value, add to the signs that demand is... 8th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget 2023 Preview We expect the Spring Budget on 15 th March to contain some giveaways confined to 2023/24. But a downgrade to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) medium-term GDP growth forecasts will prevent... 8th March 2023 · 17 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial pipeline not a major risk A record amount of industrial space is currently under construction, which looks poorly timed given the upcoming recession. However, the sector is entering the downturn in a strong position with very... 8th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: The economic and market consequences of the Spring Budget 1678894200 What will UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt deliver in his Spring Budget?
