RBA Watch April pause will be followed by final hike in May The RBA has signalled a pause in its tightening cycle at next week’s meeting and the economic data on balance suggest that it will follow through. However, we still expect it to hike rates one more... 29th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Feb.) What does banking sector turmoil mean for Asia? Will Japanese overseas lending come back to bite? What are China’s own bank vulnerabilities? Join our 20-minute online briefing on Thurs., 30th March... 29th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Feb.) 29th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Government drops its fiscal anchor The 2023 Budget projects a much larger deficit than the prior Fall Economic Statement and, as a result, the government now agrees with our forecast that the debt-to-GDP ratio will rise. Roughly half... 28th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Recession needed to solve the inflation problem While CPI inflation will fall from 10.4% to around 3.5% this year, we think a recession involving a peak-to-trough fall in real GDP of around 1.0% is needed to ensure that domestic price pressures... 28th March 2023 · 27 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep policy tight despite recession The euro-zone economy is set to perform much worse than consensus forecasts suggest over the next two years, with a recession looking likely. That is mainly because monetary policy and bank lending... 28th March 2023 · 27 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jan.) House prices continued to nudge lower in January, taking the total fall since their June 2022 peak to 3.0%. But with affordability still stretched, we expect price falls to continue over the coming... 28th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Long Run Focus How can ageing countries protect their labour forces? As countries age, falling working-age populations will make it harder to sustain growth in the size of the labour force. Lessons from countries that are already advanced in the ageing process suggest... 28th March 2023 · 25 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Feb.) The tepid rise in retail sales in February all but locks in a contraction in sales volumes in Q1. We think that a stronger rise in services spending will help keep private consumption buoyant this... 28th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily European G-SIBs need a better RoE to justify a higher valuation While the shares of Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) in Europe bounced today on the news that a buyer has been found for parts of the failed US lender, Silicon Valley Bank, their price... 27th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Mar.) The fifth successive monthly increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in March suggests that Germany is still benefitting from falling energy prices and easing supply problems but has yet to... 27th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Surging credit card spending not a cause for concern The surge in credit card spending over the past year hasn’t been any larger than the increase in overall consumer spending. And with personal credit accounting for a small share of overall credit, a... 27th March 2023 · 4 mins read
