Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) With housing affordability the most stretched it’s been since the global financial crisis, we don’t think the uptick in house prices in March will be sustained. We’re sticking to our forecast that... 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan BoJ Tankan (Q1 2023) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that while the services sector remains resilient, the outlook for the manufacturing sector has worsened materially. 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Recent strong momentum starts to wane After an unexpectedly strong start to the year in January, which was mostly maintained in February, the March data will tell us whether that early strength was a temporary weather-related spike or a... 31st March 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Banking strains will amplify tightening in credit conditions Even before the turmoil in the banking sector, UK banks were planning on sharply reducing the amount of credit available to households. The recent strains in the banking sector will amplify the... 31st March 2023 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Lessons in liquidity from Credit Suisse Despite meeting its regulatory requirements, it took only a matter of days of stressed conditions for Credit Suisse to be forced into a takeover. A closer look at Credit Suisse's liquidity position... 31st March 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Q4 Final) The final Q4 2022 GDP data suggested the economy was even more resilient in 2022 than we previously thought, as the government absorbed some of the hit to households from high inflation. But we still... 31st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Minimum wage will surge again With Australian unions and the government both in agreement on the need to protect low-income workers, we expect a bumper 6% rise in the minimum wage this year. However, given the low share of workers... 31st March 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Mar.) House prices fell for a seventh consecutive month in February, taking the total fall from their peak in August to 4.6%. With house prices still significantly overvalued in today’s higher mortgage rate... 31st March 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Yield Curve Control still on counted time The Bank of Japan faces a dilemma as inflationary pressures are becoming increasingly broad-based at the same time as economic activity is softening. What may tilt the balance towards the ending of... 31st March 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Feb. 23) While industrial production bounced back and retail sales recorded a strong increase in February, we still think that the economy entered a recession this quarter. 31st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market (Feb. 2023) & Tokyo CPI (Mar. 2023) Labour market conditions loosened in February and should continue to do so over coming months due to a recession. Meanwhile, Tokyo CPI data showed a large increase in underlying inflation, as both... 31st March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Housing market insulated from banking crisis The latest mortgage market data show that the banking crisis has, so far, had a minimal impact on the housing market. While spreads have increased, overall mortgage rates have dropped and applications... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
