Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Jan. 2023) Wage growth fell sharply in January to its weakest in almost two years due largely to a slowdown in the growth of regular and overtime hours worked. Real wages posted the worst fall since the Global... 7th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Jan.) 7th March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Poor affordability key to bigger price falls in the West In this Update we examine the implications of affordability for house prices at the market level. Despite sunbelt markets seeing the strongest house price growth over the past couple of years... 6th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Feb.) The headline CIPS construction index rebounded back into expansionary territory in February and the forward-looking indicators also showed further improvement. Commercial developers may be taking... 6th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big are risks from Germany’s trade links to China Germany is more vulnerable than most advanced economies to a reduction in trade with China both because of the scale of trade and the use of Chinese-made inputs to its large manufacturing sector. 6th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Services inflation will remain stubbornly high With labour productivity falling the most on record over the past year, unit labour cost growth has surged even as hourly earnings growth has remained sluggish. While we expect productivity growth to... 6th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Equity risk premium suggests complacency creeping in Although recent economic data have surprised to the upside, we still think that economic growth in the US will falter later this year. In our view, indicators of the equity risk premium in the US... 3rd March 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily How is “higher for longer” playing out in the US stock market? Notwithstanding the partial recoveries today, the past month or so has seen a sell-off in both Treasuries and equities in which “rate sensitive” stock market sectors have underperformed. So long as... 3rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell and payrolls to clarify rate outlook The February employment report and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress next week should give a clearer indication of whether recent talk of interest rates going “higher for longer” is... 3rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Improved outlook for inflation, activity and even Brexit It may seem odd that we are revising down our CPI inflation forecast when investors’ concerns about the stickiness of inflation are growing. But the revisions are triggered by the further fall in the... 3rd March 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Two points on “higher for longer” and asset markets With much of the global economy holding up surprisingly well and inflation not coming down as quickly as expected, investors are weighing up the risk that policy rates remain elevated for much longer... 3rd March 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Private consumption will weaken further this year While Q4 GDP was broadly in line in with our expectations, the details show that the Australian consumer is on weaker ground than we had thought. The confluence of falling real disposable incomes... 3rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy headed for recession We're expecting industrial production to rebound strongly in February. Even so, industrial output will still slump this quarter, pointing to a larger q/q fall in Q1 GDP than we’re forecasting. However... 3rd March 2023 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Yield Curve Control could be abandoned this month Yield Curve Control is on counted time and the key question is not if but when it will be abandoned. The Bank could wait until Kazuo Ueda becomes Governor in April. But given that this risks another... 3rd March 2023 · 8 mins read