Global Economics Focus Introducing our new financial conditions indices (FCIs) We have revamped our financial conditions indices (FCIs) for DM economies. This document sets out a framework for analysing financial conditions, explains our methodology, presents and interprets our... 18th April 2023 · 20 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Feb./Mar.) The labour market became a bit less tight in February and wage growth continued to ease, albeit slowly. That leaves the Bank of England with a tough call on whether to raise interest rates further... 18th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update A tale of two listed real estate markets While US equity REITs are a long way from discounting the “best of times” for US commercial real estate (CRE) over the coming quarters, listed real estate stocks in Europe appear braced for something... 17th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: How tight are financial conditions in the wake of the bank turmoil? 1681999200 As the dust settles on March’s banking sector turmoil, there’s intensifying focus on how credit is being affected by heightened fear.
Europe Economics Update Bank stress tests to leave some questions unanswered Recent events have highlighted that meeting regulatory capital and liquidity requirements does not guarantee that banks will be financially stable. The forthcoming EU bank stress test results should... 17th April 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Shift towards cheaper homes challenges statisticians The divergence between the Nationwide and Halifax House Price Indices of late has cast some doubt on the direction of house prices. A struggle to adjust the statistics for a shift towards cheaper... 17th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem pushes back against rate cut expectations Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem used his press conference this week to push back against expectations for interest rate cuts later this year. That partly reflects the Bank’s less downbeat... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook Western and big six metros set for 25%+ price falls We have made substantial downgrades to our metro-level forecasts this quarter. The outlook for office-based employment growth has been hit by tech sector struggles, weighing on demand in many western... 14th April 2023 · 14 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation strong, but activity weakening The strength of the March CPI data may be enough to persuade the Fed to squeeze in a final 25bp rate hike at the early-May FOMC meeting. But with mounting evidence that economic growth is weakening... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.5% m/m fall in manufacturing output in March provides more evidence of a loss of economic momentum going into the second quarter. 14th April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Retail sales fell by 1.0% m/m in March, adding to the evidence that the strong start to the year was partly due to the unseasonably mild winter weather. With control group sales only falling by 0.3% m... 14th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Surge in household incomes unlikely to be sustained Some of the continued resilience of the economy has been due to the performance of household incomes, which in real terms hasn't been as weak as we expected. Some of that is due to government payments... 14th April 2023 · 10 mins read
