Global Economics Update When will interest rates start to fall? Inflation is now on a downward trend and interest rates are at, or very close to, a peak. But central banks will only cut interest rates once there are clearer signs that underlying price pressures... 17th May 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) Homebuilders have turned their attention to finishing off the large number of homes under construction rather than starting new ones, keeping single-family starts close to their recent lows in April... 17th May 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Property close to fairly valued Following a surge in property yields over the second half of last year, property moved closer to fair value again in Q1. Admittedly, on our measure the all-property score is still sitting in... 17th May 2023 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will hike to 5.75% in July The latest data don’t tell a compelling story as far as the outlook for inflation and the economy are concerned. Although inflation expectations are falling, measures of underlying inflation are still... 17th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1) The Q1 wage price index showed that quarterly wage gains were a bit softer than the RBA had anticipated which supports our view that the Bank won’t raise interest rates any further. 17th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1 2023) 17th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q1 2023 Preliminary) GDP surprised to the upside last quarter, mainly because of stronger performances in private consumption and business investment than preliminary data had indicated. That suggests that there is... 17th May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Apr.) Solid gains in retail sales and manufacturing output in April indicate that the economy remains resilient to the impact of higher interest rates and tightening lending standards. That said, real... 16th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The renewed acceleration in the monthly changes in CPI-trim and CPI-median in April leaves us doubting our view that the Bank of Canada will be ready to cut interest rates as soon as October. 16th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) The labour market has been remarkably strong so far this year and we think it will continue to hold up much better than the GDP data might suggest in the coming quarters. 16th May 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Mar./Apr.) The labour market loosened by a bit more than the Bank of England expected in March. That may alleviate some pressure on the Bank to raise rates above 4.50% at the next policy meeting in June. 16th May 2023 · 3 mins read
