UK Data Response Public finances (Apr.) April’s public finances figures got the new fiscal year off to a shaky start. But we doubt this will prevent the Chancellor from embarking on a fiscal splurge ahead of the next general election, due... 23rd May 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Neutral interest rate may rise to 1% by 2050 As in other advanced economies, Australia’s neutral rate of interest rate will probably edge up a bit over the coming decades. That will result in higher borrowing costs, but Australia’s low public... 23rd May 2023 · 13 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (May 2023) May’s flash PMI readings were the strongest they’d been in a while and point to gains in both industrial production and services spending, supporting our assessment that the economy continued to grow... 23rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Weak external demand to weigh on exports National GDP data released so far suggest that euro-zone exports rose in Q1. However we suspect they will be more subdued in the coming quarters as a result of weak global growth. 22nd May 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Labour activity and costs appear to be turning More convincing evidence of a loosening in the labour market and an easing in labour costs growth has started to emerge. It may not prevent the Bank of England from raising interest rate above 4.50%... 22nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Services inflation set to fall as input cost pressures ease Most of the recent acceleration in services inflation reflects pass-through of higher goods prices. While firms have become more willing to pass on higher input costs, we still think that sluggish... 22nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Mar. 2023) We already know that business investment rose despite a plunge in capital goods shipments last quarter. As such, we wouldn’t read too much into the fall in machinery orders in March. The bigger... 22nd May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Weak Q1, but bigger price falls to come in Q2 The economy has been relatively resilient so far, but with the banking turmoil set to weigh on activity, we continue to expect a recession this year. Slower growth has already translated to softer... 19th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the potential return of “higher for longer” We suspect a return of “higher for longer” in markets would be worse for short-dated Treasuries than long-dated ones, at least in the near term. 19th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada set to raise interest rates again The Bank of Canada’s latest Financial System Review reiterated the risks to households from higher interest rates, but concluded that most are coping well. Following the rapid turnaround in the... 19th May 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly High migration won’t cool inflation pressures quickly Migration appears to be rebounding much faster than anyone expected. But the continued "mismatches" between workers and vacancies implies that migrants have not been effective at filling all the... 19th May 2023 · 10 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economic resilience emboldens Fed hawks Recent solid activity data and the apparent progress on debt ceiling negotiations appear to have convinced some Fed officials that it is still too early to pause interest rate hikes. We still aren’t... 19th May 2023 · 8 mins read
