US Economics Update Strikes remain few and far between The United Auto Workers (UAW) strike action aimed at the Big Three automakers should have only a trivial effect on the broader economy. More generally, despite the tightness of labour market... 19th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Higher oil prices not a game-changer for inflation We are not convinced that the increase in oil prices has set the stage for a sustained rebound in inflation. Accordingly, there is little chance that developed market central banks will resume or... 19th September 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our forecast that the Bank of England won’t start cutting interest rates until the second half of 2024 means mortgage rates are likely to stay between 5.5% and 6.0% until mid-2024. While transactions... 19th September 2023 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Aug.) Housing starts fell sharply across both the single-family and multifamily sectors in August, suggesting that construction has now reached a turning point. We expect this downward trend to continue for... 19th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ policy rate will settle at 0% in the long run The wage-setting behaviour of Japanese firms has changed over the last couple of years and to reflect this we’re revising our long-run inflation forecast from 0.5% to 1.0%. However, that would still... 19th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Sep.) House price inflation turned positive in August, but the smaller monthly price gain combined with signs of easing demand and increasing supply show that the housing market continues to cool. 18th September 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A protracted peak A slower fall in core inflation than in the US or the euro-zone will mean that the Bank of England keeps interest rates on hold at the probable peak of 5.50% for longer than the US Fed or the ECB. But... 18th September 2023 · 18 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (Aug) The $29.0bn monthly rise in real estate debt held by US banks in August, now at $5.48trn outstanding, was the largest m/m increase in six months. However, we expect this spike to be short-lived, as... 18th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Negative rates will end in early-2024 Even though the sustainability of above-target inflation is still far from assured, the Bank of Japan seems to be keen on finally ending negative rates. Accordingly, we now expect a 20bp hike in the... 18th September 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly No sign of immigration slowdown as opinion shifts A recent poll suggests that Canadians are growing sceptical of the government’s high immigration targets. Whether policy shifts or not, it is inevitable that net immigration will eventually slow from... 15th September 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Shutdowns and strikes could disrupt economy With no agreement on a new contract with the big three automakers, the United Auto Workers union has started limited strike action. The impact on overall GDP should be limited but, if production... 15th September 2023 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Apartment and single-family REIT divergence to persist The recent outperformance of single-family REITs versus apartment REITs appears to be down to differences in the capital value outlook for the sectors, rather than any major difference in rental... 15th September 2023 · 3 mins read
