Europe Economics Update Euro-zone construction set to weaken We think that the slump in demand for mortgages will more than offset the support from the high backlog of work and result in a sizeable contraction in euro-zone construction output in the coming... 30th May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Mar.) In line with the stronger-than-expected economic data releases at the start of the year, house prices proved resilient in March. But we expect the economy to weaken in the coming months, which will... 30th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rise in mortgage rates will trigger renewed downturn The upward revision to our Bank Rate forecast suggests that mortgage rates will return to a similar peak as last autumn by the end of the year. That would undermine the recent pick-up in mortgage... 30th May 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Dogged inflation means more yield rises to come Higher-than-expected core inflation means interest rates are now set to be higher for longer and we still think the economy will enter a mild recession later this year. That’s not a great backdrop for... 30th May 2023 · 24 mins read
Japan Economics Update Has corporate Japan cleaned up its act? Many commentators have pinned the recent outperformance of Japan’s stock market on the stronger focus by Japanese firms to maximise shareholder value. But while those efforts showed some success in... 30th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market (Apr. 2023) The unemployment rate reversed the sharp rise in March last month and the job-to-applicant ratio stabilised, but a recession in H2 should still see the unemployment rate peak at 3% by year-end. 30th May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Debt ceiling fight moves on to Congress Although President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have finalised a deal to raise the debt ceiling, we wouldn’t be surprised if legislative delays mean that deal doesn’t get passed by... 29th May 2023 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar marches on thanks to “higher for longer” For the third week running, the dollar looks primed to notch up decent gains against most other major currencies. We don’t think newsflow regarding the US debt ceiling (which has swung from positive... 26th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany leads euro-zone into recession The downward revision to Germany’s first-quarter GDP data means its economy contracted by 0.8ppts during Q4 2022 and Q1 2023, leaving it much smaller than it was before the pandemic. What’s more, the... 26th May 2023 · 11 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuation scores rise sharply, but there is more to come Our commercial property valuation scores rose sharply in Q1, suggesting that Q3 2022 was a trough in valuations. Office and retail sectors now look fairly valued. While we think retail values do not... 26th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market conditions easing The decline in the job vacancy rate to a 22-month low in March eases some of the pressure on the Bank of Canada but, with the CFIB Business Barometer showing a renewed rise in firms’ selling price... 26th May 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economic growth may have been weaker than thought This week’s upward revision to first-quarter GDP growth, to 1.3% annualised from 1.1%, suggests the economy had marginally more momentum than previously thought. But, in stark contrast, the first... 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending, Durable Goods & Advance Economic Indicators (Apr.) 26th May 2023 · 2 mins read
