Global Economics Update World trade probably hasn’t reached its trough yet Global goods trade rose slightly in May, but timelier data point to a renewed fall in June. And as spending patterns continue to normalise away from goods towards services at the same time as higher... 28th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Yield Curve Control is effectively over The Bank of Japan announced today that it will allow 10-year yields to rise above the 0.5% ceiling – which it says it is retaining – to a new “just-in-case” cap of 1.0%. With signs mounting of a... 28th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Nascent virtuous cycle raises risk of policy tightening Inflation continues to run well ahead of wage growth and we're sticking to our forecast that the resulting fall in real incomes will force consumers to tighten their belts over the coming months. With... 28th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia confronts its rental crisis Although Q2 CPI data for Australia were softer than most had expected, rental inflation continued to accelerate. Moreover, leading indicators suggest that rental inflation likely won't peak before... 28th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Jun.) The sharp decline in retail sales in June suggests that sales volumes fell for a third consecutive quarter in Q2. With the RBA sounding increasingly concerned about the outlook for household spending... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q2) The latest RICS survey signalled a slight improvement in occupier and investment sentiment in Q2, but confidence remained low by historic standards. Tight credit conditions and a poor economic... 27th July 2023 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment & wage growth continue to slow We expect the July employment report to show a continued gradual slowdown in employment growth and a decline in wage growth to a two-year low. That should give Fed officials a little more confidence... 27th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response GDP (Q2) The 2.4% annualised gain in second-quarter real GDP growth, which means the economy expanded at close to its potential pace over the first half of the year, suggests that higher interest rates are... 27th July 2023 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch 25bps hike and peak in sight We think the Bank of England will revert to raising interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), from 5.00% to 5.25%, at the policy meeting on Thursday 3rd August rather than repeating June’s 50bps hike... 27th July 2023 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update Fed tightening cycle done As everyone expected, the Fed increased its policy rate by an additional 25bp today, taking the fed funds target range to between 5.25% and 5.50% but, while officials are possibly still eyeing one... 26th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Are AI equity valuations justified? The sky-high valuations of some touted winners from AI have given rise to claims that their share prices have risen to unsustainably high levels. Is there anything we can learn from the dot com era? 26th July 2023 · 5 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Global Markets Valuations Monitor (July 2023) The continued rise in the valuations of “risky” assets relative to “safe” ones mostly seems to reflect growing confidence in the economic outlook. We think that optimism will be disappointed and that... 26th July 2023 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Property Index (Q2 2023) Total returns were negative again in Q2 at -2.0% q/q. This was dragged down by the office sector, where values fell by 7% and quarterly returns were -5.8%, with all other sectors outperforming the all... 26th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Core inflation still far lower than elsewhere Comparing the proper inflation gauges reveals that core inflation in Japan remains far lower than elsewhere. And with most of the recent pick-up in core inflation reflecting soaring imports costs, the... 26th July 2023 · 2 mins read
