UK Economics Rapid Response UK Migration (Jun. 2023) The net migration figures for the year to June 2023 give some ammunition to both sides of the political divide. When it comes to the economy, it’s disappointing that despite strong net migration the... 23rd November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CPIS Flash PMIs (Nov. 2023) The rise in the flash composite activity PMI, from 48.7 in October to 50.1 in November, is still consistent with a mild contraction in real GDP. However, activity isn’t weak enough to reduce... 23rd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Migration not the sole cause for productivity slump While subdued capital spending has contributed to the slump in productivity, the recent plunge in the capital/labour ratio can only partly be explained by the surge in net migration. 23rd November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement – Pre-election splurge, post election squeeze The net giveaway the Chancellor announced in the Autumn Statement is designed to curry favour ahead of an election late in 2024. However, fiscal policy is still being tightened in 2024/25 and it looks... 22nd November 2023 · 16 mins read
US Economics Weekly Post SVB bank lending holding up well The SVB crisis back in mid-March sparked fears of a credit crunch, particularly among regional banks who are the principal source of funding for commercial real estate. Post-SVB, while the Fed’s... 22nd November 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Autumn Fiscal Statement (22nd Nov. 2023) For more detailed analysis of the Autumn Statement, see our UK Economics Focus here. The net new giveaway the Chancellor announced today of £14.3bn in 2024/25 (0.5% of GDP) is a bit bigger than the... 22nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Event UK Housing Drop-In: Is the worst behind the UK housing market? 1701423000 Chief Property Economist Andrew Burrell and Andrew Wishart, who leads our UK housing coverage, held a client briefing shortly after the release of t
Canada Economics Update Freeland avoids pouring more fuel on the inflation fire Faced with much higher interest costs, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland outlined very little in the way of new spending measures in the Fall Economic Statement today. Most of the focus was on non... 21st November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Falling mortgage rates won't spark major recovery Housing market activity is likely to recover from here, driven by falling mortgage rates. That said, they are set to remain high relative to recent history. Our view is that mortgage rates won’t drop... 21st November 2023 · 15 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Prices to bottom out, but activity will remain soft Surprisingly resilient demand, high inflation, and limited supply mean a severe drop in house prices will be avoided. With the peak in mortgage rates now behind us and the labour market in good shape... 21st November 2023 · 17 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Nov. 23) The economy’s third-quarter strength was not the start of a renewed acceleration and we continue to expect GDP growth to weaken. Regardless, resilient economic growth has not prevented a continued... 21st November 2023 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Oct. 2023) Existing home sales fell sharply to a fresh 13-year low in October as the 8% peak in mortgage rates in the same month caused buyers and sellers to withdraw from the market. Mortgage applications for... 21st November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Oct. 2023) October’s public finances figures won’t deter the Chancellor from embarking on a pre-election fiscal giveaway in his Autumn Statement on Wednesday. We think he will unveil a net fiscal giveaway... 21st November 2023 · 3 mins read
