UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q1 2023 Final) The final Q1 2023 GDP data confirms that the economy steered clear of a recession at the start of 2023. But with around 60% of the drag from higher interest rates yet to be felt, we still think the... 30th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stronger yen will weigh on corporate earnings We aren't convinced by the narrative that the recent surge in Japan's stock market reflects a genuine turnaround in the fortunes for Japan's economy. While firms still seem to be able to escape weak... 30th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA has more work to do as economy is holding up Although CPI data released this week showed a sharp slowdown in headline inflation, it’s clear that underlying price pressures remain strong. What’s more, yesterday’s retail sales data revealed an... 30th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity (May 2023) & Tokyo Consumer Prices (Jun. 2023) The end-month data rush mostly affirms our view of the economy. The first fall in underlying inflation in Tokyo in more than a year is likely to be followed by consistent decreases in H2, while the... 30th June 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Capital values to fall by another 15%, offices to fare worse The effects of March’s regional bank failures have yet to come through in the performance data, but transaction volumes have fallen off a cliff. Signs of distress in offices are growing as the sector... 29th June 2023 · 20 mins read
Global Economics Update World trade resumes its decline World trade fell in April and timelier data point to a further fall in May, partly due to a sharp drop in Chinese exports which reversed all of their rebound from earlier this year. And weak demand... 29th June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Renewed slowdown in payroll growth We think employment growth remained fairly resilient in June and have pencilled in a 250,000 increase in non-farm payrolls. But that would still be a sharp slowdown from May’s surge. 29th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Is corporate greed to blame for high inflation? The surge in inflation in advanced economies has not been driven by a widening of firms’ profit margins. However, the fact that firms have been able to maintain profit margins in the face of rising... 29th June 2023 · 23 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Is corporate greed to blame for high inflation? 1688652000 Consumer anger is mounting, executives are on the defensive and politicians are scrambling to respond.
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (May 2023) Higher interest rates continued to weigh on bank lending in May, particularly in the housing market. This effect will only intensify as the Bank of England raises interest rates from 5.00% now to a... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Spain HICP (June 2023) The further fall in Spanish HICP inflation will provide some respite for households who have suffered a sharp hit to real household income over the last year. But it will have little sway over ECB... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Higher rates make further house price falls inevitable Higher mortgage rates have not only priced many buyers out of the market altogether, but also reduced the size of mortgage those still able to buy can take out. The latest surge in mortgage rates to... 28th June 2023 · 10 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (May.) Total employment growth was resilient across metros in May, recording 0.6% 3m/3m on average. That growth was led again by Boston, Las Vegas and Charlotte, with San Antonio also seeing a rise of over 1... 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch Cash rate will peak at 4.85% by September While headline inflation plunged in May, we doubt that this will have assuaged the Bank’s concerns about soaring unit labour costs and rising inflation expectations. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our... 28th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (May) The sharp fall in inflation in May raises the risk that Reserve Bank of Australia will not raise any further at the upcoming meeting in July, but we still think that mounting upside risks to inflation... 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read