US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2023) All-property values are down by 10% from their mid-2022 peaks, but we think there is still another 15% to come by the end of 2024. Much of that price fall will be driven by a rise in cap rates in... 23rd August 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update What explains the resilience of economic growth? GDP in those sectors normally most sensitive to interest rates has weakened over the past year and is now well below the pre-pandemic trend. The resilience of overall economic growth to higher... 23rd August 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Rise in gas prices could make the BoE’s task harder In an environment in which firms feel able to pass on higher energy costs in their selling prices, the latest leap in wholesale gas prices poses an upside risk to our forecast for core CPI inflation... 23rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Aug. 2023) The fall in the activity PMI to below the boom-bust level of 50.0 in August supports our long-held view that the economy will enter a recession. And with weaker activity dampening price pressures, we... 23rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jul. 2023) July’s public finances figures continued the recent run of better-than-expected news on the fiscal position. But with interest rates still rising and a mild recession on its way, we continue to think... 22nd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Import cost lift to consumer prices has run its course We estimate that firms have now passed on all of the increase in import costs to consumer prices which suggests that inflation will slow sharply over the coming months. 22nd August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Returns underpinned by income After a brief respite earlier this year, property yields are once again on the rise, driven by a further increase in gilt yields. We don’t expect a repeat of the surge seen last year, but we also... 21st August 2023 · 23 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Will public and foreign demand prevent a recession? With inflation cooling, the government may soon become more willing to support the economy, but we doubt it will provide as much support as it did during the global financial crisis. However, net... 21st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to remain on hold despite inflation rebound While the renewed rise in headline inflation in July seems concerning, a closer look shows disinflationary pressures are still building in key areas. Together with easing demand, that should give the... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Still far from an unsustainable US stock market valuation Although the US stock market has started to come under pressure from rising Treasury yields, the valuation of equities relative to government bonds is still a long way from being as stretched as it... 18th August 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Apartment completions likely to stay strong until 2025 We continue to expect historic highs for apartment completions in 2023-24 even though there are signs some will be deferred. This also means that, although new permits have dropped back amid softer... 18th August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Rise in rate expectations casts doubt on pre-election tax cuts We would be surprised if the Chancellor is unable to find any cash to deliver some popular sweeteners to the electorate ahead of the next general election. But the latest data are a setback for the... 18th August 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Markets on edge ahead of Jackson Hole The continued surge in long-term Treasury yields to their highest level since before the financial crisis, as expectations of an economic re-acceleration have mounted, sets a fraught backdrop ahead of... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
