Asset Allocation Update US stock market patterns and the economic outlook Recent patterns in the US stock market are sending mixed signals about the extent to which investors are braced for an economic downturn. Our own view is that equities will struggle to make more... 7th September 2023 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack With affordability stretched and the economy slowing, housing market activity is expected to remain weak over the coming quarters. While we expect house prices to lose some of their recent momentum... 7th September 2023 · 1 min read
Event Drop-In: Unpacking the Fed, ECB and Bank of England September decisions 1695304800 Will the FOMC’s September meeting confirm that the Fed is done with tightening? Will the ECB and Bank of England take rates higher?
UK Housing Market Update Real house prices hit seven-year low According to Halifax, house prices are up by 20% compared to 2019 even after their recent falls. But adjusted for inflation they slipped to a seven-year low in August. High mortgage rates point to a... 7th September 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Halifax House Prices (Aug 2023) The steep fall in the Halifax House Price Index in August confirmed that the further leg down in house prices we have been forecasting has materialised. If we are right to think that mortgage rates... 7th September 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor M1 narrow money continues to contract at a double-digit annual pace, as higher interest rates temper demand for low-return deposits. Broader money growth is not faring quite as badly, since higher... 6th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada’s next move likely to be a rate cut The Bank of Canada accompanied its decision to leave interest rates unchanged with a pledge to hike again if needed, but we doubt it will need to follow through. With recession risks rising and labour... 6th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Weighing up the prospects for DM bond yields The worsening economic growth backdrop suggests to us that interest rate expectations for cyclically sensitive developed market (DM) economies are too high. We expect them to fall and drag bond yields... 6th September 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (Aug.) The rise in the ISM services index to a six-month high of 54.5 in August, from 52.7, is a further sign that activity growth is holding up in the third quarter. That said, a weighted average of the two... 6th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update German fiscal policy to remain looser than pre-Covid The German government is unlikely to announce the kind of big stimulus package that some are calling for. However, fiscal policy will remain much more supportive than it was before the pandemic. 6th September 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response International Trade (July) Net external trade is on track to provide a modest positive contribution to third-quarter GDP growth, despite the widening in the monthly trade deficit to $65.0bn in July, from $63.7bn. 6th September 2023 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Labour market almost back into balance A growing number of indicators suggest that the labour market is no longer much tighter than it was in 2019 and that, as a result, wage growth is also likely to slow towards pre-pandemic levels soon... 6th September 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) Mortgage rates continue to weigh on demand Mortgage applications for home purchase continued to slip in August, recording the largest monthly fall since February. This latest drop has kept mortgage... 6th September 2023 · 1 min read
