US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack Surging Treasury yields have pushed mortgage rates above 7.5%, higher than we had anticipated. If these borrowing rates persist, lending and sales volumes could fall even further in the near term... 10th October 2023 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What do higher rates mean for the BoJ’s finances? Any fall in bond prices resulting from higher bond yields won’t affect the BoJ’s balance sheet unless the Bank decides to sell its holdings. By contrast, rising interest payments on commercial banks’... 10th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to retain their... 10th October 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How worried should we be about Italy’s public debt? The recent shift towards looser fiscal policy in Italy and increase in sovereign bond yields once again have raised concerns that investors may lose confidence in Italy’s ability to sustain its debt... 9th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With the economy growing at an above-trend pace, the labour market should soon start to tighten... 9th October 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Equity relief rally may not last long The US stock market has rallied so far today and is on track to bring to an end a spell of weekly losses. Although we think that the proximate cause of this recent weakness – rising bond yields – has... 6th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher bond yields mean more pain for housing The further rise in home listings in September and likelihood that mortgage rates will increase amid the global bond market sell-off suggests that house prices will soon fall again. While employment... 6th October 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Rising long rates a fiscal rather than monetary problem The conventional wisdom is that the recent surge in Treasury yields is a reaction to the Fed’s “higher for longer” message. But that surge has been focused solely on the long end of the curve... 6th October 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Bond market sell-off already hurting the economy The rapid rise in the 30-year gilt yield has lifted it to a 20-year high but, while striking, so far the speed of the increase is slower than in the run-up to the liability-driven investment crisis... 6th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Recent data suggest that the euro-zone economy contracted in Q3 and we expect it to shrink further... 6th October 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The strong headline employment gain in September was entirely due to a rebound in educational services employment, with employment elsewhere edging down. That suggests labour market conditions... 6th October 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Sep.) The surprisingly strong 336,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September adds to the evidence on real activity that the economy is holding up well despite the headwind from higher interest rates. 6th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What the bond market sell-off means for the euro-zone The bond market sell-off, and associated tightening of financial conditions, reinforces our view that the ECB has finished hiking. The market moves have been nowhere near big enough to prompt the ECB... 6th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Focus How worried should we be about the Treasury sell-off? The government bond sell-off over the past three months raises uncomfortable questions around the risks of financial instability and the outlook for fiscal policy. This note takes stock of what has... 6th October 2023 · 14 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Halifax House Prices (Sep. 23) The sixth consecutive monthly decline in the Halifax House Price Index in September leaves it significantly more downbeat than the Nationwide figures about near-term momentum in house prices. Given... 6th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Resurgence in price pressures won’t last The Melbourne Institute’s timely inflation gauge suggests that trimmed inflation is likely to overshoot the RBA’s expectations for Q3. Although the Board left rates on hold this week, we therefore... 6th October 2023 · 4 mins read
