UK Economics Weekly Upside inflation risks dominate, Labour’s investment plans The upside risks to oil and gas prices triggered by the conflict between Hamas and Israel will add to the Bank of England’s concerns about whether it has done enough to reduce inflation to the 2%... 13th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) The latest activity and survey data have provided even more evidence that the resilience in activity in advanced economies over the first half of 2023 is now fading. High interest rates are clearly... 13th October 2023 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Above-trend growth won’t be sustained The savings rate bounced back in Q2 as consumption fell and remains above its pre-pandemic average, leaving scope for a renewed rise in spending over the coming quarters. And with inflation set to... 13th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand elections won’t usher in major changes Opinion polls in the run up to tomorrow’s general election in New Zealand suggest that the centre-right National party is in pole position to wrest power from the incumbent, centre-left Labour party... 13th October 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update BoE Credit Conditions Survey (Q3 2023) - Demand and supply of credit contracts Surging interest rates caused mortgage demand to slump in Q3 at the same time as rising defaults led lenders to tighten mortgage credit conditions. Similarly, it became more difficult to secure... 12th October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The 0.3% m/m rise in core consumer prices in September suggests, at face value, that the downward trend in core inflation may be easing. But that’s largely because of a stronger gain in shelter prices... 12th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Households avoid mortgages as higher rates bite harder Higher interest rates weighed sharply on households’ demand for mortgages in Q3 and banks expect demand for mortgages to fall further in Q4. This is a clear sign that higher interest rates are working... 12th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Euro-zone equities may continue to underperform the US We think euro-zone equities’ recent run of underperformance relative to those in the US will extend over the next couple of years, as bond yields fall back and enthusiasm around “AI” continues to grow... 12th October 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Monthly GDP (Aug. 2023) The 0.2% m/m rise in real GDP in August followed July’s 0.6% m/m contraction and will raise hopes that the economy has escaped a recession this year. But the timelier measures of activity point to a... 12th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The impact of net migration on Australia’s economy Most of the recent surge in net migration has been driven by the increased arrival of foreign students, who generally spend less, work fewer hours and demand less housing than the average Australian... 12th October 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed FOMC Minutes (19th-20th Sep. Meeting) Despite the ‘higher for longer’ message from the Fed’s updated rate projections last month, the minutes from the September FOMC meeting suggest that officials’ confidence in those forecasts is limited... 11th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep. 23) Surveyors reported the most widespread price falls since February 2009 in September as mortgage rates of over 5% took their toll. Looking ahead, a further slide in house prices appears inevitable. 11th October 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook Office value falls to exceed 50% in worst-hit cities The outlook for offices is negative across all markets, but we expect substantial differences across the 17 metros we forecast. We now think Seattle, San Francisco and Austin will see vacancy rise by... 11th October 2023 · 13 mins read
Canada Economics Update What’s behind resurgent core inflation pressures? The recent strength of core inflation compared to that in the US is mainly due to a rebound in durable goods prices. That has little to do with demand, which has weakened to a greater extent in Canada... 11th October 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Can Labour move the dial on housing supply? Labour has made housing a major theme of its conference, and the party’s attitude towards New Towns and social housing means that the next election could prove a turning point in the structure of the... 10th October 2023 · 4 mins read
