Global Economics Focus Chapter 3: Where will inflation (and nominal rates) settle? Why we expect a more volatile inflation outlook in the coming years, and how central banks are likely to respond in setting nominal rates in this new normal. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus Chapter 2: How will the savings/investment balance affect r*? Why savings and investment incentives will become better aligned in the next decade than over the past 20 years, causing r* to rise. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus Chapter 1: Will stronger potential growth boost r*? Examining how the drivers that have been pulling down equilibrium rates are fading, and the strengthening forces that will push rates higher in the coming decade. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus Introduction and framework The analytical framework for our r* research, where equilibrium interest rates are determined by the potential rate of GDP growth and other factors which influence the desire to save or invest. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus r* and the end of the ultra-low rates era: executive summary Highlighting the key takeaways from our in-depth new analysis on equilibrium real interest rates in the post-pandemic global economy. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Aug./Sep. 2023) Cooling labour market conditions appeared to start feeding through into an easing in wage growth in August. That supports our view that interest rates have peaked at 5.25%. But as we suspect wage... 17th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3 2023) 16th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys unlikely to prompt another hike The Bank of Canada’s quarterly surveys show that businesses’ inflation expectations continue to decline, albeit slowly, and point to a growing risk that the economy will fall into recession... 16th October 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (Sep) The jump in lending in August proved temporary as net lending to commercial property totalled just $13.5bn in September, below the average for 2023 thus far. This took total outstanding real estate... 16th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Labour market should tighten again before long The job-to-applicant ratio has usually signalled earlier than the Tankan that the labour market has taken a turn for the worse. But despite the recent fall in the number of jobs relative to applicants... 16th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Consumers will pull back as financial strains build There are growing indications that household finances are coming under pressure as mortgagors struggle with rising debt-servicing costs. Although households benefit from substantial liquidity buffers... 16th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly From bust to boom and back again for housing The fall in house prices in September shows just how quickly conditions in the housing market have shifted and the plunge in the sales-to-new listing ratio points to more weakness to come. That is... 13th October 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Case for final Fed hike continues to weaken There appears to be growing support at the Fed for the idea that the recent sell-off in long-term Treasuries reduces the need for further policy rate hikes, but the more persuasive reason for the Fed... 13th October 2023 · 8 mins read
