BoE Watch A long time on the top of the mountain We think the Bank of England will leave interest rates unchanged at 5.25% for the second policy meeting in a row on Thursday 2nd November, that rates will stay at their peak for a bit longer than most... 26th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Strong immigration is unlikely to be enough to prevent a mild recession, with GDP contracting... 25th October 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s next move likely to be a rate cut Although the Bank of Canada maintained its tightening bias today, the rest of its communications suggest that the Bank is growing more confident it has done enough to eventually get inflation back to... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Still on course for rate cuts next year We don’t expect a significant change in tone from the Fed next week, with rates on hold but officials keeping the option of further tightening on the table. That said, the surge in long-term Treasury... 25th October 2023 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (Sep. 2023) Extraordinarily limited supply in the existing homes market continued to drive buyers to new homes in September. The 12.4% m/m rise in new home sales in September took them to 759,000 annualised... 25th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Effectiveness of Mortgage Guarantee varies by region The proposed extension to the Mortgage Guarantee Scheme could prove a good counter-cyclical policy in areas where house prices are relatively low. But the scheme has far less impact in London and the... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Weak housing market to squeeze spending and investment We suspect that more weakness in the housing market will weigh on real GDP by further reducing residential investment and consumer spending. This is one reason why we think the economy is close to a... 25th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (Oct.) The small rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in October still left the index in contractionary territory, echoing the downbeat message from the Composite PMI released yesterday. This chimes... 25th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q3 2023) With price pressures being slower to abate than the RBA had anticipated, we think the Bank will deliver one final 25bp rate at its next meeting in November. 25th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to weaker activity and lower inflation The October flash PMI surveys suggest that economic activity got off to a weak start in Q4, especially in Europe. And with weak activity taking some of the steam out of labour markets and inflation... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation back to target by end-2024 Global headline inflation has fallen sharply from its peak a year ago and, despite a temporary setback due to higher fuel inflation, we expect it to fall a lot further over the coming year. The huge... 24th October 2023 · 16 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Oct. 2023) The composite activity PMI inched up from 48.5 in September to 48.6 in October after five months of declines. But that still leaves the PMI at a level that, historically, has been consistent with a... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Aug. 2023) The labour market appeared not to loosen as much as we thought in August based on the Office for National Statistics’ new experimental data. But this is unlikely to sway the Bank of England ahead of... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Forecast revisions won’t prompt tighter policy just yet The Bank of Japan will lift its growth and inflation forecasts at the upcoming meeting, but we think that it will wait for further signs that strong wage growth continues before tightening policy any... 24th October 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our forecast that the Bank of England won’t start cutting interest rates until the second half of 2024 means mortgage rates are likely to stay between 5% and 6% until mid-2024. While transactions... 23rd October 2023 · 1 min read
